New Redemption Grab Bag now includes an assortment of 500 cards from five (5) different expansion sets. Available at Cactus website.
Quote from: jmhartz on August 02, 2011, 12:54:55 PMI think a FTM is a 11 card advantage. If you have a 50 card deck with hopper, go first, and get the perfect FTM, after you play Mayhem you will have 7 cards in territory, 1 in discard, and 6 in hand (14 total), and your opponent will have 6 in hand, 0 in discard, and 0 in territory (6 total). But your opponent also drew 3 when you didn't, so they should have been +3 on you, and instead you are +8 on them, thus an 11 card advantage, IMHO.And the percentage chance of a FTM with 50 card deck with Hopper is 19.05%, so about 1 out of every 5 games.Interesting factoid: If both players have 50 card decks with Hopper and Mayhem, the odds that one player (but not both!) gets a FTM is 30.84%. If you estimate that a player with a FTM (and their opponent does not get a FTM) wins 95% of the time (and this might even be conservative!), then when two 50 card decks with Hopper/Mayhem are paired against each other, the odds that the game is already decided before it starts is 29.30%. <-- This is a good of a reason as any as to why Mayhem should be banned - if a game is decided almost 1/3 of the time before it is started because of one card.Can I ask what math you used to get those percentages? I'm just curious as to why I've got a 21% chance of FTM, and you've got a 19% one.
I think a FTM is a 11 card advantage. If you have a 50 card deck with hopper, go first, and get the perfect FTM, after you play Mayhem you will have 7 cards in territory, 1 in discard, and 6 in hand (14 total), and your opponent will have 6 in hand, 0 in discard, and 0 in territory (6 total). But your opponent also drew 3 when you didn't, so they should have been +3 on you, and instead you are +8 on them, thus an 11 card advantage, IMHO.And the percentage chance of a FTM with 50 card deck with Hopper is 19.05%, so about 1 out of every 5 games.Interesting factoid: If both players have 50 card decks with Hopper and Mayhem, the odds that one player (but not both!) gets a FTM is 30.84%. If you estimate that a player with a FTM (and their opponent does not get a FTM) wins 95% of the time (and this might even be conservative!), then when two 50 card decks with Hopper/Mayhem are paired against each other, the odds that the game is already decided before it starts is 29.30%. <-- This is a good of a reason as any as to why Mayhem should be banned - if a game is decided almost 1/3 of the time before it is started because of one card.
What is FTM???
If you consider that you may draw other cards that allow you to draw, your chance at a FTM is above 19.05%
