Cactus Game Design Message Boards

FYI:
Chances of Westy making top game = 1:25
Chances of Olijar making top game = 1:27
Therefore, chances of both of them making top game = 1:675

For further curiousity:
Chances of reigning champ making top game = 1:15
Front-runner's chances of making top game = 1:5
Chances of me making top game = 1:31

P.S.  I liked the show as well as Westy's tips on the blog.

Where do you get the ratios from?

If it makes you feel better, Ari isn't a "new player" per se, he's been playing for several years, he just hasn't really kept up with the game so still uses old/starter cards.

To further elaborate, he usually likes to play Genesis/Gray but was playing Teams with Nathan Wagenknecht and used the deck list Nathan made for teams during T1 2p. I wouldn't call it a starter deck - it was a third Ruth, third Judges, and third other heroes (David, Ahimelek, Aaron, etc) with a Magician defense.

Kirk

FYI:
Chances of Westy making top game = 1:25
Chances of Olijar making top game = 1:27
Therefore, chances of both of them making top game = 1:675

For further curiousity:
Chances of reigning champ making top game = 1:15
Front-runner's chances of making top game = 1:5
Chances of me making top game = 1:31

P.S.  I liked the show as well as Westy's tips on the blog.

FWIW, even if all of your ratios were correct, your math is not. Since Westy's chances of making the top two and Olijar's chances of making the top two are not independent variables, you can't just multiply the two ratios to get your odds. You have to take into account the fact that they might not end up on different sides of the bracket (i.e. in an 8-person tournament, the only way two seeds can meet in the final round is if one of them is from the set [1,4,5,8] and the other is from the set [2,3,6,7]).

Of course, now I'm intrigued by what types of math/assumptions an actual oddsmaker would use to set odds for such an event. If I were to spitball numbers, I'd give Westy and Olijar about equal odds to make Top Cut. I'd say that the probability that Westy makes it is 1:6, and the probability that Olijar makes it is 1:6 (based on past performance, experience, knowledge of the game, etc.). Now with a large enough field, Westy making it and Olijar making it are roughly independent events (though not truly independent, the only way that could happen is if the initial field was infinite and they played infinite rounds...but I digress.) In order to get anything more precise, you'd have to take into account the probabilities of every single game in every single round, which includes souls differentials, random pairings between people with the same differentials, ties, timeouts, etc. etc...way too many variables. But like I said, with a sufficiently large field, the odds of both Olijar and Westy making top cut are ~1:36 using my stated assumptions. Now the odds that they end up in different halves of the bracket (assuming they both make it) is going to be roughly 4:7. Why you ask? Well, the most likely seed for an arbitrary top cut contender is the middle (4th or 5th seed). The least likely seeds will be the ends (1st because you need to be either 6-1 with the best differential or 7-0, and 8th because you need to probably be the best or second best 5-2 player by Strength of Schedule out of a field of anywhere from 12-16 5-2 players depending on the tournament size...no easy task in either case). From there, the other four seeds have likelihoods between the [1,4,5,8] seeds, so it can be assumed that an arbitrary top cut player has a 1:2 chance of being in either half of the bracket. From there, the odds that a second arbitrary player ends up on the other half as the first is going to be ~4:7 because 4 of the 7 remaining spots are on that other half.

Now, if we assume that both of them make it and on different halves of the bracket, we finally have two truly independent variables: the event that Westy wins his half, and that Olijar wins his half. Because of the way Redemption is, and historically a "good" player has ~ a 50% chance of beating another "good" player, I'd put the odds of each of them winning their bracket at 1:4 (since really each of the four players on each side of the bracket will be "good" players, and thus all have an equal chance of winning their side). Since the two events now are truly independent, the odds of both of them winning their halves of the bracket is 1:16.

Hence: 1:36 * 4:7 * 1:16 = 1:1008. To make it a nice, even number, I'd just go ahead and say that the odds of a matchup between our two RM friends in the top two is a thousand to one.

/math

I have had Redemption PND since Nats 2010.  The article did however forget to mention one of the best ways to combat PND: play a different CCG.

What is PND?

Bored and suffering from PND?
Aug:Sep ROOT Westy vs Slugfencer

add me on youtube guys. TheRaven878

does this mean new redemptionmetagaming videos?

Quote from: New Raven BR on August 13, 2014, 10:22:12 PM

does this mean new redemptionmetagaming videos?

We have a lot underway right now, should be able to start uploading 1-2 a week!

just out of curiousity, have any plans as to who you and alex want to be on your show as your special guest?

Welcome back Alex we missed your trolling.

So we were going to do a video for you guys tonight, but my voice is almost completely gone, so we'll have to postpone it until it returns.

Our latest video posted to the wrong youtube account because Google+ created a new account for itself and it automatically logged us in on that account.  I'm not sure at this point how to move the video from one channel to another, but for now....
New Set Overview
Actual cards begin being discussed at the 3:00 mark, but you wouldn't want to skip our re-introduction, right?