Author Topic: Redemption MetaGaming: Giving You The Edge (Read 39438 times)

Professoralstad · « **Reply #150 on:** July 12, 2013, 03:21:14 PM »

Quote from: jmhartz on July 12, 2013, 12:59:40 PM

Quote from: Alex_Olijar in his Redemption Metagaming article
With the 42 card deck, your chance of drawing any one card in your opening hand looks like this:

1/42 + 1/41 + 1/40 + 1/39 + 1/38 + 1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 = .2085328

Unfortunately your math is slightly off. In each iteration after 1/42, you are forgetting to adjust for the odds that all previous draws did not net you your desired card. I carried out your logic to fractions beyond 1/35, and at 1/16 (i.e., your 27th card) the sum exceeds 100%.

Yep. The fact that the harmonic series 1/n as n->infinity doesn't converge is one of the most frustrating parts of Calc II. I'm rather disappointed I didn't catch that myself.

Prof Underwood · « **Reply #151 on:** July 12, 2013, 03:36:39 PM »

Quote from: asrgimli on July 12, 2013, 01:49:57 PM

Quote from: jmhartz on July 12, 2013, 12:59:40 PM
Well, I think we know the odds of this are less than 0%.
My first thoughts were...well, to quote someone else who knows his math...
Quote from: jmhartz on July 12, 2013, 12:59:40 PM
Unfortunately your math is slightly off.

Just to let you know, the "less than 0%" happens to be a forum-meme here. I don't think jmhartz was trying to be accurate there

asrgimli · « **Reply #152 on:** July 12, 2013, 03:41:23 PM »

I haven't made a lot of appearances on the forums, and I've only been involved with the game for a year, so I may not know a lot of inside jokes, so thanks for the explanation. That being said, my post was also an attempt at a joke, hence the winky-smiley at the end.

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #153 on:** July 12, 2013, 06:22:36 PM »

Yeah I actually realized that later on but I had already posted and was a bit too lazy to switch it. I knew something felt wrong but I didn't place it until much later.

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #154 on:** July 17, 2013, 09:40:24 PM »

There is tentatively a stream scheduled for this Sunday at 5 pm EST. Expect discussion of PA and MN states and a review of EC regionals.

Prof Underwood · « **Reply #155 on:** July 18, 2013, 01:36:29 AM »

Quote from: Alex_Olijar on July 17, 2013, 09:40:24 PM

Expect ... a review of EC regionals.

How are you going to review something that neither of you were at? Can we expect another guest on your show, or are you looking for one?

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #156 on:** July 18, 2013, 01:38:01 AM »

Quote from: Prof Underwood on July 18, 2013, 01:36:29 AM

Quote from: Alex_Olijar on July 17, 2013, 09:40:24 PM
Expect ... a review of EC regionals.
How are you going to review something that neither of you were at? Can we expect another guest on your show, or are you looking for one?

We have decklists for the top 2 placers and a few tournament reports, as well as talking directly with the winner. We are not planning on having any guests, as we have 3 tournaments to cover, so we want to make it brief.

RTSmaniac · « **Reply #157 on:** July 18, 2013, 12:31:45 PM »

Just as long as you get all the facts straight.

I suspect this is only a review on the Type 1 format?

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #158 on:** July 18, 2013, 01:57:31 PM »

Correct

Prof Underwood · « **Reply #159 on:** July 18, 2013, 03:56:37 PM »

Quote from: RTSmaniac on July 18, 2013, 12:31:45 PM

I suspect this is only a review on the Type 1 format?

Quote from: Alex_Olijar on July 18, 2013, 01:57:31 PM

Correct

That's too bad considering that two of the best T2 players ever both competed at the EC Regionals (RTSM and Mr. Hiatus) and that some of the TN players are no slouches either.

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #160 on:** July 18, 2013, 05:40:55 PM »

Quote from: Prof Underwood on July 18, 2013, 03:56:37 PM

Quote from: RTSmaniac on July 18, 2013, 12:31:45 PM
I suspect this is only a review on the Type 1 format?
Quote from: Alex_Olijar on July 18, 2013, 01:57:31 PM
Correct
That's too bad considering that two of the best T2 players ever both competed at the EC Regionals (RTSM and Mr. Hiatus) and that some of the TN players are no slouches either.

Considering we have 0 decklists, don't even know who won, and don't play Type 2, I don't really think it would bring much value to the show to talk about it for the 5 seconds we'd be able to do so.

Master KChief · « **Reply #161 on:** July 18, 2013, 06:02:12 PM »

And here I was hoping to see a review of who made top cut for Sealed. Rats.

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #162 on:** July 18, 2013, 11:31:44 PM »

Also there is a reason I used discussion to describe the events we will be at the review of the one we were not at. EC regionals won't be as long of a discussion, but since it was a well attended tournament with one published decklist for 2nd place in addition to being able to acquire the first place decklist from Red (who kindly sent it to Westy and I) it seems dumb not to talk about it for a little bit.

I don't think we've ever pretending to know anything about Type 2

I doubt either of us has anything to add. I spend any Type 2 time I have trying to break the game with ridiculous lists, not trying to win tournaments - which I definitely try to do in Type 1.

RTSmaniac · « **Reply #163 on:** July 19, 2013, 12:12:54 AM »

I played T2-2P, 3 rounds. I won every game running two decks, a Disciple/Pharisee list with 3 Peter (I) - no Miraculous Catch or Authority of Peter, and a Silver/Isaiah emphasis on the silver with Angel Sword and Overwhelming Presence on Mike. I ran the decks switching every round starting with the purple against Gabes Isaiah list.
An early Nazzy, RbD, and Darius Decree shut my opponent down quickly as his CwD hurt me as well stopping me from playing my Pretentions outside of combat. I had better draws with 4dCoin helping to power out a 7-2 victory.
Round 2: was against Tyler who also had 2 decks including an Angel variant and a Purple/Gold. He knew the Pretentions would be trouble for him, so he opted for the Purple/Gold and got a turns 1 and 2 Jar. I switched decks and was lucky he didnt hit too many uniques. He did get Mike so I had to equip Angel of His Presence with Sword which was fun. Isaiah drawing 4-5 cards a turn didnt help my oppponent as I kept him at bay with the 4 Words of Discouragement (classic Clift, right?) any Arts getting in my way were discarded with ASA and I even finished the game with an epic shuffle in Mike from Jar, play Wheel, and equip with Sword FTW! 7-2.
Round 3: I switched back to Disciple/Pharisee and was rewarded against a Genesis/Grey-PaleGreen-Brown with a turn 1 Nazzy/Darius Decree which shut him down while I drew into all my Disciples FTW. I dont remember the score 7-1 i think. Memorable play: Darius Decree up, Idol Gossip off of Proud and stating "I'll have your guy fight my big Purple Peter".

I made my T1 deck from my T2 and had my "TheDeck" variant half build to turn in as well but didnt have it ready in time for the T1 event so I just went with what I had, which wasnt something I was proud of and was certain wasnt going to do well...

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #164 on:** July 21, 2013, 05:03:44 PM »

States 2013

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #165 on:** July 21, 2013, 08:03:02 PM »

You know you have a good stream when one of the best players in the game tells you to stop giving away his secrets.

RTSmaniac · « **Reply #166 on:** July 21, 2013, 09:27:57 PM »

I highly enjoyed this video and was very surprised with how spot on you guy's were with your remarks when it came to card choices used in both decks of EC Regionals.

defense too weak
needs more soul gen
thadd tgt aoc aop mlmg
lacking- close to being very good

2liner (should have had thorns)
maybe add teal

Red didnt have a revealer or he would have had it in there.
King David was good against the meta of the tourney.
Deb with name on name bonus did come up in our game.
Red did have a stronger schedule of play than I did, and deserved that win even though I almost stole it from him with the exception of one misplay.

Professoralstad · « **Reply #167 on:** July 22, 2013, 04:51:02 PM »

For those who are interested:

A Typical Jordan Alstad Deck

Arrthoa · « **Reply #168 on:** July 24, 2013, 06:25:47 PM »

You guys forgot one royal evil character when talking about Canaanites: King Bera of Sodom who may not be used much but is still in there

TheHobbit13 · « **Reply #169 on:** July 24, 2013, 06:32:02 PM »

Bera's a beast if you use him right. I ran 4 Bera's and 3 Political Saavy in my Type 2 deck for MN states.

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #170 on:** July 24, 2013, 08:37:23 PM »

I just spoiled my States deck. Hold your applause please!

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #171 on:** August 02, 2013, 05:27:39 PM »

We will be doing a recap of MW Regionals and Nationals preparation video Sunday at 5/4c.

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #172 on:** August 04, 2013, 04:57:15 PM »

MW Regionals Recap and National Preparation

browarod · « **Reply #173 on:** August 05, 2013, 01:26:08 PM »

If it makes you feel better, Ari isn't a "new player" per se, he's been playing for several years, he just hasn't really kept up with the game so still uses old/starter cards.

Prof Underwood · « **Reply #174 on:** August 05, 2013, 03:03:13 PM »

FYI:
Chances of Westy making top game = 1:25
Chances of Olijar making top game = 1:27
Therefore, chances of both of them making top game = 1:675

For further curiousity:
Chances of reigning champ making top game = 1:15
Front-runner's chances of making top game = 1:5
Chances of me making top game = 1:31

P.S. I liked the show as well as Westy's tips on the blog.

News:

Author Topic: Redemption MetaGaming: Giving You The Edge (Read 39438 times)

Warrior_Monk

Warrior_Monk

TheHobbit13

Warrior_Monk

Warrior_Monk

browarod