Cactus Game Design Message Boards

For Red:

Just thought I'd offer a few corrections to your probabilities in your webzine issue.  I'm not trying to be mean, this is actually good stuff for advanced players to know. 

I have "excluded" LS as being cards, since they are replaced when drawn.

Chance of drawing a specific card in your opening hand, 50 card deck, 7 LS:  1 - odds you don't draw the card you want
1 - (42/43)(41/42)(40/41)(39/40)(38/39)(37/38)(36/37)(35/36) = 1 - 35/43 = 18.60% chance you get any one card that you want

Chance of drawing a specific two cards in your opening hand, 50 card deck, 7 LS:  Not quite as simple to figure.  Trust me on this.
7.08% chance you get two specific cards you want

Chance of drawing 1 or more hero(es), 5 heroes in deck, 50 card deck, 7 LS:  1 - odds you don't draw a hero
1 - (38/43)(37/42)(36/41)(35/40)(34/39)(33/38)(32/37)(31/36) = 66.27% you get at least one hero

Chance of drawing 1 or more hero(es), 10 heroes in deck, 50 card deck, 7 LS:  1 - odds you don't draw a hero
1 - (33/43)(32/42)(31/41)(30/40)(29/39)(28/38)(27/37)(26/36) = 90.43% you get at least one hero

Hope this helps!

I used rough math. Not really a 100% correct article and I inculded LS as cards being they start in your deck. It wasn't written to be compelty tecnical like yours has. I based mine on fractions and not percentages. Also did anyone enjoy the other articles?

A lot of players would probably appreciate knowing the exact percentages of drawing certain cards on your opening hand given different scenarios. Even if you don't know the math yourself, having someone who does help you with the analysis could greatly improve your articles, if you intend for them to be helpful to new players/deckbuilders. The fractions you used in your post would be correct if you only drew one card on your opening hand.