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Lol they can't even play each other in the super bowl and if they did with the way the Packers have been playing defense New Orleans would DESTROY them.

This is based in statistics, not reality.

Now including AFC/NFC, it'll be Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay, with advantage GB.  I'll get to the playoffs tomorrow.

I managed to predict 8 of 15 games correctly so far.  I won't be betting the rent money just yet.

Quote from: SomeKittens on December 26, 2011, 08:10:41 PM

Now including AFC/NFC, it'll be Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay, with advantage GB.  I'll get to the playoffs tomorrow.

Ahem... My ravens absolutely DESTROYED the Steelers this season... not to mention the rest of our division.

Not just that, but we are perfect at home, and Pittsburgh would have to come here

You guys seem to be assuming that under his system the Ravens played the Steelers at all. What if the Pats beat the Ravens who them lost to the Steelers?

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

Ravens will play either the steelers or broncos first, then the winner of the other 3 teams.

AFC:
Wild card round:
CIN < HOU
PIT > DEN
Divisional:
HOU < BAL
NE < PIT
BAL > PIT
Baltimore Ravens win AFC

NFC:
Wild card round:
NO > DET
NYG < ATL
NO < SF
GB > ATL
SF ? GB
49ers and Packers are tied in my program, but I'll give it to the Packers because they have a better record.

Super Bowl:
GB > BAL

That looks good except for the last line.

replace the > with < and you're good.

GB to SD to BAL ( two jumps )
BAL to PIT to KC to GB ( three jumps )

With this team beat that team which beat that team logic now in the mix, I feel compelled to post this

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/A-demonstration-of-NFL-parity-in-one-handy-circ?urn=nfl-288589

I just wonder if a similar circle could be made for this year.

...with the way the Packers have been playing defense New Orleans would DESTROY them.

On average Green Bay scores a little less than point more per game on offense than New Orleans does and gives up a little more than a point more on defense than New Orleans. Given that the Saints defense is not a whole lot better than Green Bay's I am not sure how that equates to New Orleans *destroying* the Packers. (Especially since the Saints' are 5-3 outside of their dome and the game will be played at Lambeau.)

A GB/NO game strikes me as akin to two speed decks going at each other. Whoever can make the most stops will win the game, and for that I will take the Packers +24 turnover number and Rodgers 6 picks to the -3 New Orleans has with Brees giving up 14 interceptions.

I also am quite happy that New Orleans will be the ones playing San Francisco in San Francisco, because neither the Saints nor the Packers have faced a defense anywhere near as good as the one the 49ers put on the field.

Kitten

I managed to predict 8 of 15 games correctly so far.  I won't be betting the rent money just yet.

On the other hand, your program successfully predicted the teams in the play-offs and their seeding, so that is something. 

Seriously though, to give you some points of comparison... Players in human pools (ESPN/CBS Sports) tend to select winners at about a 63% correct rate. If you can get that to 68% you will be in the top 0.5% of all players. This is for straight up pick-em. If you are betting against the point spread average people are at 50% (that's how point spreads are determined).  Professional gamblers are at 53-54%.

The difference being that we have a playoff system in the NFL, the reason that it's so annoying 'Bama is getting a rematch is that none of the other top 5 teams are being given a chance to show they deserve it. If there was a playoff system and both teams made it to the title game then they deserve to face each other but Alabama had their chance and screwed it up, someone else should get a shot now.

Quote from: lp670sv on January 02, 2012, 11:43:55 AM

The difference being that we have a playoff system in the NFL, the reason that it's so annoying 'Bama is getting a rematch is that none of the other top 5 teams are being given a chance to show they deserve it. If there was a playoff system and both teams made it to the title game then they deserve to face each other but Alabama had their chance and screwed it up, someone else should get a shot now.

I agree with that, my point was that the regular season games were dominated by defense (though 16-6 isn't as bad as 9-6). I don't know if the best defensive team in the NFC has ever faced the best defensive team in the AFC in the Super Bowl before. Either way, a Super Bowl with less than 20 points scored would be an oddity in today's NFL, just as a NCAA championship with less than 20 points scored would be strange. Yet both are entirely possible.

Pittsburgh and Houston resent that belief that the Ravens are the best defense.