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Quote from: Sadness on December 11, 2013, 06:33:10 PM

We will trade you Romo and our 1st and 3rd pick for Brady.

Tony Romo is not now, nor has he ever been your problem.

Sure he is...did you even watch the Dallas/Denver game? If he hadn't thrown that last pick, the Cowboys probably would have won. The 550 yds and 5 TDs were basically insignificant...

Similarly, to assume that a well-balanced college powerhouse football team like this year's Florida State couldn't beat a dysfunctional NFL team like the Buccaneers is presumptuous at best. 

Its really not presumptuous.  A college team couldn't even fill a starting line up of NFL quality players, let alone a full team.  NFL players have much better training, even the rookies on an NFL team are in better shape then they were in their final year of college.  NFL teams are just bigger, faster and better than all college teams.  Sure individual players on the college teams would hold their own, but overall, the NFL team would dominate.

What would really kill a college team, however, is the depth.  The second string of an NFL team is generally better than college teams, so the nfl team can handle the defensive substitutions while the college team is either going to have to put in players who have no business playing against NFL players, or are going to have their starters exhausted by the second half.  And then there's the other big thing depth gives you, special teams.  The college team would NEVER start with any sort of decent field position.  Those guys covering kickoffs?  Yeah they'd be starters on most college teams, they are going to beat the special teamers of a college team every time.  And this goes the other way too, the NFL team is going to start with great position pretty much every kick that doesn't start with a touchback, because the players on the special teams are simply better than what a college team can put out for special teams.

For reference, when the Jaguars where 0-4, a simulation was run to see what sort of shot Alabama would have against the Jaguars. The simulation came up with the Jaguars having a 91.4% win rate.  Now you might think that means Alabama had a shot, but for further reference, the same simulation gave Seattle a 95% win rate over Jacksonville when the game was played in Seattle.  Alabama vs Jacksonville was determined to be about the equivalent of watching the Seahawks play the Jaguars in Seattle, that is, Alabama would be wrecked.

An NFL team has 53 players that are good enough to play in the NFL. How many college players end up getting drafted? Even from the best teams? Not to mention nfl players have more experience and probably practice more. Perhaps most importantly, you're selecting from a group of 18-22 year olds for college, and 22+ year olds for the nfl. The NFL has a larger talent pool to choose from.

Pitting a college team against an nfl team would end before half time, because there wouldn't be enough college players left outside of ambulances to put enough men on the field.

I happen to disagree with both assertions from your post and Rawr's. I believe that a well-coached, well-prepared team that matches the size and speed of an NFL team could beat an NFL team (albeit a weak NFL team with a rookie QB fresh out of college - and he wasn't that dominant in college). It's not like Florida State and Alabama have cream puffs on their bench. They have the next generation of NFL players who are waiting for the Seniors to graduate. Some, like Jameis Winston, are already ready to go as Freshman. Don't be fooled into thinking that the rosters of powerhouse schools are filled with 18-year-olds. Many of the players have had redshirt years, and transferred from Junior Colleges. They are mid-20's and have the same stamina as mid-30's NFL players. The weight room of Florida State is no different than the weight room of the Buccaneers. They both have their $$millions.

Regardless, I still believe in the "Any given Sunday" philosophy. Call me a dreamer. 

An NFL team has 53 players that are good enough to play in the NFL. How many college players end up getting drafted?

This is the best argument for this side in my opinion.  It just makes sense in theory.

2009, when a Community College beat the Pirates.

This is the best argument for this side in my opinion.  Regardless of theory, this actually happened.

This makes me REALLY want to see something in the future where the college champion plays the worst ranked NFL team in an exhibition every year.  And for that matter we should do the same thing with NCAA basketball and the NBA.

This makes me REALLY want to see something in the future where the college champion plays the worst ranked NFL team in an exhibition every year.

That will never happen, for a variety of reasons. First, college players on the national championship team will now usually have to play 15 games in a season (12 Regular season games, conference championship, then a playoff game to get to the championship game). There's a decent chance that that could be moved up to 16 games when it is decided that the top 8 teams need to go to the new playoff system. That's 15-16 games of one of the most physically brutal sports there is in a span of just over four months. Now we want these unpaid college students, 70-80+% of whom (even on the championship team) will never get the big payoff of an NFL contract (and thus need to focus on things like, you know, getting a college degree) to play against a team of guys who have been handpicked by the foremost experts in the sport to play for their team. If I was a college kid (or the agent of a college kid) who is likely to be a high draft pick in the next NFL draft, why would I risk injury against a group of guys who have had superior training, and don't have to worry about grades, studying, or really anything at all aside from football.

Secondly, there is a tremendous amount of parity in the NFL, especially among teams that aren't upper echelon. This season, with the exception of the Seahawks, every division leader has lost at least one game to a team with a record of .500 or less, and even the Seahawks nearly lost to the team who is currently the worst-ranked team in the NFL early on in the season. I was witness to that parity yesterday, when I got to see live, before my very eyes, a mediocre 3-win team without its best player demoralize the team who had been until yesterday the hottest team in the NFL (and coached by a demigod, no less  ). So if you think that the best college team could be competitive with the worst team in the NFL, then you are saying that they can be competitive with the best team in the NFL (which really is preposterous).

Thirdly, the NFL players wouldn't go for it either. Aside from being the laughingstock of a tough guy league if you lose, to literally no benefit (other than not being a laughingstock) if you win, you also risk injury. And when would this game be played? If it was after the regular season but before the draft, it is likely that you have a new coach for the NFL team, since the worst team in the league almost always fires their coach. Often the new coach isn't even hired for a few weeks to a month after the season. You also have players who have retired that certainly don't want to come back to play a meaningless game. Before too long players have been traded, picked up on free agency, not to mention the many changes that the college team would go through.

So while comments like "the best football team in Florida is the Seminoles" or "the best QB in Minnesota plays for the Gophers" (heard that one a lot this past season), will always be made in jest, or even semi-seriousness, they will never pan out in this particular sport.

Teams have good games and bad games.  So a bad team can have a good game and beat a good team that had a bad game that then has a bad game and lose to an even worse team who has a good a good game.

I respect your opinion about NFL vs. college, even though I disagree, but I find it interesting that you will concede the point in this quote, and yet are not willing to accept that this could happen "on any given Sunday" between a great college team and a poor NFL team.

FTR, when I LOL'd about the simulator, I was laughing at the simulator, not you. That is actually just a pet peeve of mine about the authenticity of simulators in relation to sports. I didn't mean for that to come off as smug, but the -1 I got made me reread the post and realize I should have elaborated. I was typing in a hurry. I apologize for any offense.

I actually think a college team could beat a pro team because of how playing the game would affect decision making. If you are expected to lose, you can attempt stranger things and making higher risk decisions for the chance of higher reward. The variance of one game and one decision is so high that even an inferior team in every way can win by attempting to maximize variance, and then getting lucky and have that variance side with them.

On the aggregate though, it's ridiculous to assert that amateurs could consistent compete with and surpass professionals in football. They can't even do it with Poker yet.

this is sometimes referred go as the chip Kelly method.

Quote from: Alex_Olijar on December 17, 2013, 01:11:12 PM

I actually think a college team could beat a pro team because of how playing the game would affect decision making. If you are expected to lose, you can attempt stranger things and making higher risk decisions for the chance of higher reward. The variance of one game and one decision is so high that even an inferior team in every way can win by attempting to maximize variance, and then getting lucky and have that variance side with them.

On the aggregate though, it's ridiculous to assert that amateurs could consistent compete with and surpass professionals in football. They can't even do it with Poker yet.

this is sometimes referred go as the chip Kelly method.

He's an advanced stats dream

Quote from: Human Folly on December 17, 2013, 03:47:59 PM

The Jets will beat any division 3 college team you put in front of them! J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets! I'm telling you, the Jets are looking really solid. It's too bad all the other teams are so much better. If it wasn't for the other teams being better than the Jets, the Jets would have won another SuperBowl by now.  Maybe they can win next year.

Your screenname is misspelled. It's spelled "Tony Romo".

"I don't understand why the Cowboys actually lost that go so, Tony Romo!"

It probably had something to do with the two interceptions he threw in the last five minutes of the game.

Let's see we have a 23 point lead, we're averaging 7 yards a xarrh, we have the worst defense in the NFL....

LETS KEEP THROWING THE BALL!

To be fair he apparently made a audible on the line to throw the last interception instead of running it, so yeah, that's on him.