Author Topic: Just when I thought...  (Read 29060 times)

Offline Alex_Olijar

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #75 on: January 27, 2015, 12:19:41 AM »
0
Except that there's a roughly 1/16200 chance it could have just happened independent of anything else

Offline jbeers285

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #76 on: January 27, 2015, 12:20:37 AM »
0
Again statistical 0
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Offline EmJayBee83

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #77 on: January 27, 2015, 01:26:05 AM »
0
There are conflicting reports on how many balls were under-inflated and just how under-inflated they were. [emphasis mine--mjb]

-and-

Literally anyone in this topic who is condemning the Patriots for this right now is basing every single one of their assumptions on a single report. [emphasis mine--mjb]


Oh, I see now.... Chris has been trolling us the whole time. Shame on me for not seeing it sooner. LOL. You got me.  ;D
Don't feel bad YMT, until the above I thought he was being serious also.  ;D

Warrior_Monk

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #78 on: January 27, 2015, 01:39:47 AM »
+5
Again statistical 0
By that logic, evolution could never happen...

 :angel:

Chris

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #79 on: January 27, 2015, 11:33:27 AM »
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Literally anyone in this topic who is condemning the Patriots for this right now is basing every single one of their assumptions on a single report. [emphasis mine--mjb]

Every other report that existed at the time of that post allowed for a number of extremely plausible explanations. The only one that, if taken literally, did not was the original report, which stated 11 out of the 12 balls were 2 pounds under the legal limit.

Chris

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #80 on: January 27, 2015, 05:15:42 PM »
+1
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/25/patriots-fumble-nearly-impossible-rate/LCgrlUR9qgxDsIgcal9dUI/story.html
This article (obligatory warning for brief language) pretty much debunks every single assertion that Warren Sharp makes in his analysis. The tl;dr version is that it was cherry picked analysis that at best was lazy and at worst was intentionally misleading. Either way, anyone who knows a thing about statistics knows that Sharp's analysis of New England's plays-per-fumble rate is garbage.

Here are a few other points that show how ridiculous Sharp's analysis is there:
 - Because his analysis completely omits dome teams, it also omits the fact that both the Falcons and the Saints had the same spike the Patriots saw starting in 2007.
 - The way Sharp measures "fumble rate" is the number of fumbles divided by the number of possessions, which discounts special teams fumbles. Teams with a high rate of special teams fumbles  will bring the average down when compared to the Patriots.
 - Players for New England understand that if you fumble, you're likely to see the bench (case in point: Ridley). This means players are less likely to take risks for the sake of yardage, lowering the fumble rate.

To reiterate, there is absolutely no proof that the Patriots have done anything wrong. The only things that has been confirmed are that the NFL is investigating, the Patriots are complying fully with the investigation, and Belichick and Brady both deny any wrongdoing. Absolutely everything else is speculation that is either based on reports that may not be accurate (especially given the fact that there are now at least out there) or nothing. Until there's any kind of a confirmation from the NFL, all speculation is going to do is take away from the anticipation of the Super Bowl.

Warrior_Monk

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #81 on: January 27, 2015, 06:06:40 PM »
+6
Wow! this thread has turned into a heated debate of opinions! :o
If you have nothing to contribute to the heated debate, perhaps reconsider posting.

LukeChips

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #82 on: January 27, 2015, 06:21:14 PM »
-1
I think that if someone breaks the rules, then they get punished. That's is like the Laws God established is the O.T. (specifically Leviticus). I would even want my own home team (da Bears!) to be punished if they broke the rules. Like a Redemption tournament, if someone cheats, they are immediately suspended from the rest of the Tournament!

LukeChips

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #83 on: January 27, 2015, 06:41:14 PM »
0
Ban N.E. from the playoffs for a couple of years like the NCAA does.
Why ban the whole area for the mistake of just one team?

Offline lp670sv

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #84 on: January 27, 2015, 07:15:16 PM »
+2
Oddly enough, 2007 was the Patriot's "big F you"* season of 16-0.  Karma killed that in the end.

Bottom line: my opinion is that the NFL needs to nip this in the bud once and for all.  Ban N.E. from the playoffs for a couple of years like the NCAA does.

(* Media term, not mine.)

No. No no no no no no. That policy in the NCAA is hot garbage please do not advocate that ever be brought to the NFL, especially for such a pathetically insignificant offense.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2015, 08:48:06 PM by lp670sv »

Offline Alex_Olijar

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #85 on: January 27, 2015, 08:22:45 PM »
+1
Please don't use euphimisms for swearing guys. This is basic stuff, cmon.

Offline YourMathTeacher

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #86 on: January 27, 2015, 10:14:35 PM »
+1
Yeah, I think it is time for me to leave this thread, since we have devolved so much. I think I have stated my opinion clear enough. I will leave with my final thought for today:

Whatever loyalties I may have to my team should not supersede my loyalty to the integrity of the game.
My wife is a hottie.

Offline EmJayBee83

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #87 on: January 28, 2015, 07:27:20 PM »
+4
Hey everyone; sorry for this.

This was supposed to be a light goof thread, meant to allow people who actually cared about the SB to have their discussion in the "It's just that simple. (Superbowl)" thread without the extraneous triviality that is typical of the SB run up. I honestly didn't mean for this to become contentious or heated in any serious way.

Fortunately--no matter on which side you stand--we can rest easy knowing that the crack investigative arm of the NFL on the case. I sure any outcome will combine all the thoroughness of the initial Ray Rice investigation, all the alacrity of the NFL's look into effects of concussions, the lasting impact of the report on the Miami Dolphins bullying case, and the integrity we come to expect from an organization that is headed by Roger Goodell.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 07:37:06 PM by EmJayBee83 »

Chris

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #88 on: February 07, 2015, 12:03:48 PM »
0
So we're all up to date on the fact that the Patriots have pretty much been completely cleared of intentional wrongdoing, right? In a report that was confirmed by the NFL, all but one of the balls were only a "tick" below the legal limit. One ball (especially a ball that was likely the one touched by the opposing team) at 2 PSI under the legal limit doesn't really condemn the Patriots of anything since there are a number of possible explanations, especially because the other balls are likely explained by the likelihood that the Patriots' balls start at 12.5 PSI, the lower end of the legal limit. Any factor, including atmospheric ones, would have brought those balls under the legal limit when they were remeasured, which means it is not the Patriots' fault. In other words, when I stated earlier in this thread that anyone convinced the Patriots did it didn't care about evidence and that condemnation of the Patriots was just speculation based on a single report, I was spot on.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has admitted to pumping in crowd noise and nobody is talking about that. There's very little media coverage and very little outrage from fans, which only serves to demonstrate that most of the people who claim to care about the integrity of the game really only care when it means they get to take a shot at the Patriots, or this would be talked about way, way more.

Offline EmJayBee83

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #89 on: February 07, 2015, 03:15:02 PM »
+2
So we're all up to date on the fact that the Patriots have pretty much been completely cleared of intentional wrongdoing, right?
In the article the only thing close to an official NFL source was Goddell's "we have no judgments," which strikes me as a less than ringing endorsement of Patriot innocence. Everything else was attributed to "multiple sources." This is exactly the type of sourcing you were decrying a week or so back.

In a report that was confirmed by the NFL,
Can you point me to where the NFL has confirmed Ian Rappaport's report?

If the NFL does confirm it, maybe we can at long last get you to agree that the claim that eleven of the twelve balls used by the Patriots in the AFC championship games were under-inflated was not merely unsubstantiated rumor.

Quote
all but one of the balls were only a "tick" below the legal limit.
This is simply false. According to the report--of the eleven balls, one was about two pounds under, several were about a pound under, and several more were a tick below the legal limit.

In other words, when I stated earlier in this thread that anyone convinced the Patriots did it didn't care about evidence and that condemnation of the Patriots was just speculation based on a single report, I was spot on.
And you are claiming vindication "based on a single report" which uses precisely the same type of sourcing you were complaining about earlier. Why is it OK now to go with what "several sources say" where other people relying on similarly-sourced stories was bad, bad, bad?


« Last Edit: February 07, 2015, 03:18:26 PM by EmJayBee83 »

Offline YourMathTeacher

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #90 on: February 07, 2015, 03:49:35 PM »
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You seem to have forgotten that Chris was trolling us....  ;)
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Offline EmJayBee83

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #91 on: May 06, 2015, 07:41:31 PM »
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The official NFL report is out. The NY Times headlines summarizes it thusly, "Patriots, With Tom Brady’s Knowledge, Most Likely Deflated Footballs, Report Says."

Offline VJ

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Re: Just when I thought...
« Reply #92 on: May 06, 2015, 09:28:00 PM »
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Also, according to ESPN the Patriot's owner is "disappointed" with the final report, but will go along with the league's decision.
do not think of yourself more highly than you ought but rather think of yourself with sober judgment

 


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