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Hey All,

I've been playing around with statistical ranking systems again, and figured I could use the results from the ongoing Substitute Online Tournament thread for some data. Anyway, using every result reported (I believe I got them all) in that thread we have the following rankings...

UPDATED March 14th, 2009.

     1. BrianGabe                          1824
     2. soul seeker                         1817
     3. fireninja                               1794
     4. Rawrlolsauce!                      1740
     5. SirNobody                           1663
     6. Janissary                            1659 
     7. Sean                                   1631
     8. xCaLeBx                             1593
     9. 77matthew                           1548
    10. Prof Underwood                   1530
    11. TheKarazyvicePresidentRR  1520
    12. TimMierz                            1500
    13. 777Godspeed                     1497
    14. STAMP                              1481
    15. Tsavong Lah                       1398
    16. wk4c                                  1385
    17. Isildur                                 1364
    18. stefferweffer                         1334
    19. jack99                                1313
    20. EmJayBee83*                     1303
    21. brederic                              1299
    22. Lamborghini Diablo              1275
    23. New Raven                         1264
    24. Rrulez4theSA                     1260
    25. captain                               1237
    26. RED                                   1129
    27. MehMan                             1071


I have created a post at the end of this thread with a copy of the original ratings from Feb 8, 2009 and the included, if anyone wants to compare.

*From on-line games not in tournament.

Glicko-1 using 1500 +- 350 starting values and recalculating after each game.

I think these are pretty accurate really.  Although I suspect that some players will move up (Gabe, Mierz, and Lambo) when more games are played.

TimMierz is a rather interesting study. Early on, when everybody was at 1500 level he beat Janissary and lost to fireninja. If he had played those games near the end with the same result, he would have ended up around 1600.

77matthew's ranking is also interesting as he is currently 3-2, but his two losses were "quality losses" coming against soul seeker and Proj Underwood very early on.

In both cases, it's not just wins and losses that matter but how good we think your competition is.

I'll be interested to see how these develop.  Perhaps you could release a monthly update on this thread so that people could track their progression?

I would like to periodically add in future results from the online tournament, if that is OK with soul seeker. I don't want to step on his tournament for something that is mostly just for my amusement at this point.

If anyone wants to get ranked, but doesn't want to play in the online tourney, drop me a PM and we can work something out. The main thing is you need to give me win/loss/tie results from games that both players agree ahead of time will be "official."

I'd also suggest keeping it locked between updates so that it doesn't get clogged up with unnecessary posts

Done.

*sighs*

Stickied so this doesn't get lost.

I don't think I need to bother stickying the other thread because it gets posted in so often.

just wait. i'v only played one game in the tournament so far.
my rank will go higher