Author Topic: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards. (Read 1609 times)

uthminister [BR] · « **on:** June 15, 2016, 11:19:20 AM »

http://www.cactusgamedesign.com/message_boards/redemption-market/oo-official-three-lions-gaming-price-changes-thread-oo/

Josh · « **Reply #1 on:** June 15, 2016, 11:59:25 AM »

I'd just like to go on record as stating on LoR that if TSC debuts at $50 or less, and a player plans on buying individual cards to round out a collection/prep for the tournament season, that he/she would be crazy not to buy TSC at that price

Red Dragon Thorn · « **Reply #2 on:** June 15, 2016, 12:01:32 PM »

I think we all assumed it would jump, maybe just not this much

uthminister [BR] · « **Reply #3 on:** June 15, 2016, 12:31:42 PM »

I set conditions that had to be met for the price to increase in different intervals. I set fairly unrealistic goals for a card to jump up 100% in price. TSC met and exceeded those goals. The Invisible Hand is at work.

Josh · « **Reply #4 on:** June 15, 2016, 12:54:00 PM »

This seems like an appropriate place to ask this... Travis, on your LoR article from a few days ago, you had the following in your Box Pack expected value matrix for Cloud of Witnesses:

(C/3—R/.96—UR/.04)

Does this mean that you are 24 times more likely to get a Rare than an UR when you open a CoW pack? And therefore a player opening CoW packs should expect to get 1 UR every 25 CoW packs?

I had thought this number was closer to 1 UR every 18 packs... Ken confirmed at one point that, for TEC, it was taking him an average of 72 TEC packs to get 1 complete set of TEC URs. And I thought that Rob posted (back when PC came out) that a person could expect to get all PC URs, on average, every 55 PC packs. Both of these are about 1/18 for UR frequency.

Gabe · « **Reply #5 on:** June 15, 2016, 01:23:53 PM »

I think URs average one per box (1/24) not 1/18.

RedemptionAggie · « **Reply #6 on:** June 15, 2016, 01:27:22 PM »

That number has to do with the ratio of rares to URs and changes from set to set. In the foil packs, rares were printed twice as often - the rare sheet had each rare twice (allowing for variants like the reverse fish/images and different borders), each UR once, and usually a row for promos, I believe. Seems unlikely that that ratio (2:1) would have changed.

Assumin that 2:1 print ratio:
CoW, with 36 rares and 3 URs, needs about 75 packs to get all 3 URs.
TEC, with 33 rares and 4 URs, needs about 70 packs to get all 4 URs.
TPC, with 26 rares and 3 URS, needs about 55 packs to get all 3 URs.

That 2 * R + UR, for those having issues with the math.

The Guardian · « **Reply #7 on:** June 15, 2016, 01:54:56 PM »

With CoW, the number of URs, rares and commons was based on the print sheets that Rob orders. Each sheet has 18 cards so that's why the amounts are multiples (or a factor in the case of the URs) of 18.

2 different rare sheets of 18 cards gets you 36 rares.

5 different common sheets of 18 cards gets you 90 commons.

1 sheet of URs has 6 of each UR.

uthminister [BR] · « **Reply #8 on:** June 15, 2016, 09:59:42 PM »

Quote from: RedemptionAggie on June 15, 2016, 01:27:22 PM

That number has to do with the ratio of rares to URs and changes from set to set. In the foil packs, rares were printed twice as often - the rare sheet had each rare twice (allowing for variants like the reverse fish/images and different borders), each UR once, and usually a row for promos, I believe. Seems unlikely that that ratio (2:1) would have changed.

Assumin that 2:1 print ratio:
CoW, with 36 rares and 3 URs, needs about 75 packs to get all 3 URs.
TEC, with 33 rares and 4 URs, needs about 70 packs to get all 4 URs.
TPC, with 26 rares and 3 URS, needs about 55 packs to get all 3 URs.

That 2 * R + UR, for those having issues with the math.

Those numbers are correct.

Josh · « **Reply #9 on:** June 16, 2016, 11:43:46 AM »

Quote from: uthminister [BR] on June 15, 2016, 09:59:42 PM

Quote from: RedemptionAggie on June 15, 2016, 01:27:22 PM
That number has to do with the ratio of rares to URs and changes from set to set. In the foil packs, rares were printed twice as often - the rare sheet had each rare twice (allowing for variants like the reverse fish/images and different borders), each UR once, and usually a row for promos, I believe. Seems unlikely that that ratio (2:1) would have changed.

Assumin that 2:1 print ratio:
CoW, with 36 rares and 3 URs, needs about 75 packs to get all 3 URs.
TEC, with 33 rares and 4 URs, needs about 70 packs to get all 4 URs.
TPC, with 26 rares and 3 URS, needs about 55 packs to get all 3 URs.

That 2 * R + UR, for those having issues with the math.

Those numbers are correct.

And the crazy thing is, on average you need 75 packs to get 1 TSC. But you still have a 36.5% chance of getting 0 TSC when you open 75 packs. You have a 63.5% chance of getting 1 or more TSC when you open 75 packs.

75 packs = $337.50. I know the other CoW cards are amazing, but if a player has the choice of spending $337.50 for a 63.5% chance of hitting 1 or more TSCs, or just paying $80 for TSC, I know which they choose, assuming they already have a near-complete set of CoW.

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Author Topic: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards. (Read 1609 times)

uthminister [BR]

Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

Josh

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

Red Dragon Thorn

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

uthminister [BR]

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

Josh

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

Gabe

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

RedemptionAggie

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

The Guardian

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

uthminister [BR]

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.

Josh

Re: Please notice the recent price changes to a group of CoW cards.