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I just ran a Monte Carlo for the Olijar strategy (i.e., take a free mulligan whenever you draw any number of Lost Souls). Frankly it is disastrous. Over 75% of games would start with at least one player having no lost souls available for rescue.Oh well...
So do you decide whose mulliganning first based on who has drawn the most lost souls? Because whether or not my opponent mulligans may make me change my mind.
Quote from: YourMathTeacher on March 23, 2015, 03:38:53 PMQuote from: EmJayBee83 on March 23, 2015, 11:43:34 AMSo, 42% / 31% = 1.35--which means you are 35% more likely to see 1 LS than you are to see 2+ LS. (This is actually higher than my stated value, because I mis-remembered the exact numbers.)But again, as kram pointed out, you are using a 50-card deck for your argument. A 56-card deck would not have that same result, since you are more likely to draw none than to draw 2+.Just for the record, Kram's number for the 56-card deck are off substantially for the 1 and 2+ cases. For the 56-card deck you get (0,31.8%), (1,37.0%), and (2+,31.2).
Quote from: EmJayBee83 on March 23, 2015, 11:43:34 AMSo, 42% / 31% = 1.35--which means you are 35% more likely to see 1 LS than you are to see 2+ LS. (This is actually higher than my stated value, because I mis-remembered the exact numbers.)But again, as kram pointed out, you are using a 50-card deck for your argument. A 56-card deck would not have that same result, since you are more likely to draw none than to draw 2+.
So, 42% / 31% = 1.35--which means you are 35% more likely to see 1 LS than you are to see 2+ LS. (This is actually higher than my stated value, because I mis-remembered the exact numbers.)
Quote from: Westy on March 23, 2015, 05:11:51 PMSo do you decide whose mulliganning first based on who has drawn the most lost souls? Because whether or not my opponent mulligans may make me change my mind. I would think the player with the most lost souls in territory has the first option to mulligan. Just like when you begin the game.
Just for the record, Kram's number for the 56-card deck are off substantially for the 1 and 2+ cases. For the 56-card deck you get (0,31.8%), (1,37.0%), and (2+,31.2).
Not that any of this is really relevant to the discussion of mulligan rules any more (see my last post).
The player who has drawn the most souls gets to choose whether to Mulligan first. A player can choose to mulligan one time per game. All souls drawn stay out. The entire hand is shuffled and the player draws 8, replacing souls as necessary.
It's silly to punish people for bad luck, but it still deters people from attempting to trade an average hand for a good one, by threatening additional soul draw. I don't think there's a single good reason that Lost Souls should be put back in the deck.
Is the added complication of a mulligan worth it? I know it's not much, but it does add one more layer to the game and makes it ever so slightly out of the reach of understanding for younger/newer players.
Remember when you thought I was dumb yesterday
i may be crazy but i have more nats titles than westy
It's silly to punish people for bad luck