Author Topic: Have they Ever WON!  (Read 9252 times)

Offline hi123

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Have they Ever WON!
« on: January 27, 2010, 10:59:41 AM »
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Have Green Brigade Prophets Ever Won at Nationals!
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Offline Red

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2010, 11:00:28 AM »
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nope they ain't. still good though.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2010, 12:28:22 PM by RED »
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Offline STAMP

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2010, 11:21:54 AM »
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They do well in T2.  At 2009 Nats there were several green prophets offenses that won many 2-player and multi-player games.   :)
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Offline TheKarazyvicePresidentRR

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2010, 11:56:51 AM »
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nope they ain't still good though.
Have you ever played against a green priest offense?
Have Green Brigade Prophets Ever Won at Nationals!
No they have not but they have come CLOSE! They are really strong!
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Offline hi123

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2010, 12:09:03 PM »
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nope they ain't still good though.
I think it is because of everyone yousing TGT!
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Offline Red

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2010, 12:28:52 PM »
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uh i forgot a period the are super strong.
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Warrior_Monk

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2010, 02:36:17 PM »
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nope they ain't still good though.
I think it is because of everyone yousing TGT!
well, considering TGT has only been around for 2 years, and "ever" is kind of a lot more then two years, and Nationals only comes once a year... it's not for that reason.

Offline JSB23

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2010, 06:00:49 PM »
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Also Nats was in California so 90% of Redemption players couldn't go
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Offline YourMathTeacher

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2010, 06:21:50 PM »
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Also Nats was in California so 90% of Redemption players couldn't go

Bogus data makes me giggle. What percentage of total Redemption players have not been able to attend any one of the Nats in any one of the states? Do you keep record? How many current Redemption players are there in the world? I need an exact count so I can make a more accurate precentage. Otherwise I can just throw out whatever numbers I like:

"87.8% of Redemption players were not able to attend the last Nats in Minnesota."
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Offline STAMP

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2010, 06:31:51 PM »
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So 10% showed up in CA.  I heard it was about 100 (plus or minus a few).  Let's just use 100 for calculation sake.  That means there are 1000 Redemption players.  MN had the highest turnout in 2005 at about 260+.  So...

74% of Redemption players couldn't go to the most attended Nats.


Yeah, YMT is right.  We need exact counts.

 :P
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Warrior_Monk

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2010, 06:47:17 PM »
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So 10% showed up in CA.  I heard it was about 100 (plus or minus a few).  Let's just use 100 for calculation sake.  That means there are 1000 Redemption players.  MN had the highest turnout in 2005 at about 260+.
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Offline EmJayBee83

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2010, 09:57:45 PM »
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So 10% showed up in CA.  I heard it was about 100 (plus or minus a few).  Let's just use 100 for calculation sake. 
Or you could look at the listing on the Covenant Games site and see the official attendance number was 85. (The 2005 Nats count was 252 for comparison.)

I need an exact count so I can make a more accurate precentage. Otherwise I can just throw out whatever numbers I like:
YMT, although no one can provide exact counts for everything, I am surprised that a math teacher would be so dismissive of the power of statistical sampling.

In 2009 there were 220 +- 10 players (+- for counting error) with T1-2P RNRS points according to Cactus .
There were 58 players total in T1-2P and T1-A in Nationals 2009 according to Covenant games.
This works out to a ratio of 3.8 : 1 (i.e., for every 3.8 players who earned RNRS points in 2009, 1 player attended Nationals that year).

In 2005 there were 275 +- 10 players  (+- for counting error) with T1-2P RNRS points according to Cactus.
There were 168 players total in T1-2P and T1-A at Nationals 2009 according to Covenant games.
This works out to a ratio of 1.6 : 1 (i.e., for every 1.6 players who earned RNRS points in 2005, 1 player attended Nationals that year).

So there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that these results seem to be highly supportive of some possible point. The bad news is that I am not sure what that point would be. :)  Que cera, cera.

Offline YourMathTeacher

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2010, 10:06:21 PM »
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YMT, although no one can provide exact counts for everything, I am surprised that a math teacher would be so dismissive of the power of statistical sampling.

If he had provided any then I may have listened.  ;)

However, your data (as you stated) does not defend the negative generalization he attempted. There is no way to accurately determine the number of people who play Redemption, so such a claim is worth dismissing.
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Offline Minister Polarius

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2010, 10:12:04 PM »
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I think those stats are amazing. Sure, CA didn't have the worst turnout of all time, but isn't that just because (according to those statistics) about two thirds of the players were local RLK's?

I'm not saying Redemption is only for srsbsns, but when looking at Nationals attendance, you have to think about how many actually had a chance at placing in anything, not just how many there were. If Nats 2010 had 500 attendees, but only about ten people with a real chance at winning anything, I'd call it a huge flop.
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Offline lightningninja

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2010, 11:56:46 PM »
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No but they got second at the last nationals. =)
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Offline EmJayBee83

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2010, 11:58:58 PM »
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However, your data (as you stated) does not defend the negative generalization he attempted.
I'm not sure this is quite correct, or it could be entirely correct depending on your point of view.  ;)

Unless you are going to argue that there were sizable changes in the ratio of RNRS point winners to the general universe of Redemption players, it seems clear that a significantly higher percentage of 2005 players attended Nats than attended Nats in 2009. It also seems clear that the difference was a factor that probably lies somewhere between two and three and nowhere close to a factor of ten.

I think those stats are amazing. Sure, CA didn't have the worst turnout of all time, but isn't that just because (according to those statistics) about two thirds of the players were local RLK's?
I don't know, but we could possibly find out. We have available both yearly RNRS point winners and the tournament tracking files. I suppose there could be some method to correlate the RNRS point winners for the past few years to their attendance at Nationals. You would probably want to eliminate the RNRS points awarded at Nationals to help eliminate self-selection bias.

As a starting point on the RLK factor, the ratio of T1-2P:T1-A was about 3:1 in 2005 and about 14:1 in 2009. This is thrown out merely as an interesting data point--I have no idea what it means if anything.

Quote
I'm not saying Redemption is only for srsbsns, but when looking at Nationals attendance, you have to think about how many actually had a chance at placing in anything, not just how many there were.
Another completely meaningless, but possibly diverting math project would be to find the RNRS-weighted geographic center of the Redemption playing universe. The "fairest" city of all. My guess--and I mean a complete wild-eyed guess--is that this point would end up somewhere near Chicago

Can I point out that both the RLK- and the "fairest"-city projects could make very nice science fair or statistical analysis topics?

Offline Prof Underwood

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2010, 02:54:14 AM »
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In 2009 there were 220 ... players ... with T1-2P RNRS points
In 2005 there were 275 ... players ... with T1-2P RNRS points
This is somewhat disturbing.  4 years later, and instead of the game growing, there are 50 less people winning tournaments.  That means that either less people are playing, or the winners are winning more consistently.

Another ... math project would be to find the RNRS-weighted geographic center of the Redemption playing universe.
I think this sounds like a GREAT project.  I'd be interested in hearing the results.

Warrior_Monk

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2010, 09:01:31 AM »
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In 2009 there were 220 ... players ... with T1-2P RNRS points
In 2005 there were 275 ... players ... with T1-2P RNRS points
This is somewhat disturbing.  4 years later, and instead of the game growing, there are 50 less people winning tournaments.  That means that either less people are playing, or the winners are winning more consistently.

Another ... math project would be to find the RNRS-weighted geographic center of the Redemption playing universe.
I think this sounds like a GREAT project.  I'd be interested in hearing the results.
I would say that Redemption has been on a slow decline for awhile...

Ironica

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2010, 10:22:50 AM »
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In 2009 there were 220 ... players ... with T1-2P RNRS points
In 2005 there were 275 ... players ... with T1-2P RNRS points
This is somewhat disturbing.  4 years later, and instead of the game growing, there are 50 less people winning tournaments.  That means that either less people are playing, or the winners are winning more consistently.

I'm going with the latter.  Everytime I can remember going down south (besides Natz), there's always one of the Wolfes kids in the top spots (or sometimes two of them).  I think that the top players are more consistant in their winnings.  I know that my playgroup has grown yet when I host a tournament, one of the players usually wins T1-2P all the time.  I also find it disheartening that people are still complaining about Natz being in Cali last year. :(

Offline TheKarazyvicePresidentRR

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2010, 10:53:16 AM »
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+1 to that last sentence.

I believe it is the latter of the choices. Though sometimes there can be upsets (My little brother tying me for first.../soproud). I personally have seen growth down here thanks to the valiant efforts of YMT.
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Offline Lawfuldog

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2010, 12:16:25 PM »
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I agree that winners are winning more consistently.

Once one reaches the point where they can win consistently, everytime a new set is released they instantly realize what is going to win and then perfects their playing with it. Here in Texas as an example, the person who gets 1st in Type-1 2 player is generally the same person each time, same with Type-2.

Say what you will about Sealed Deck and Booster Draft, but those will continue to be my two favorite categories simply because it doesn't usually come down to who has the better cards, but more of who plays strategically superb. To be consistent in winning a category that is based on randomness is great playing in my book. I would play them more if I had more money to spend.  :P
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Warrior_Monk

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2010, 04:00:25 PM »
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but then there are whole playgroups who have seemingly dropped off the map.

Offline STAMP

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2010, 04:17:12 PM »
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but then there are whole playgroups who have seemingly dropped off the map.

...and whole regions.   :-\
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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2010, 05:53:09 PM »
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but then there are whole playgroups who have seemingly dropped off the map.

...and whole regions.   :-\
...and whole nations. Japan?

Offline Master KChief

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Re: Have they Ever WON!
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2010, 06:44:02 AM »
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kansas city used to be huge (twice), but we've since dropped off the map since the last nationals.
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