Author Topic: Five Big Movies Come Out This Year - Box Office Predictions? (Read 7484 times)

Chronic Apathy · « **on:** March 23, 2012, 12:22:47 PM »

This came up on Facebook (where all important things do) this morning and I figured there might be some discussion potential here. We have five huge blockbusters coming out this year, including what are probably two of the three most anticipated films of all time (the third having been Return of the King): The Hunger Games, re-release of Titanic, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hobbit. What do you guys think is going to be the best selling of the group? The worst selling? I personally have the movies ranked in this order (in regards to what they'll sell):

The Dark Knight Rises (has a chance to beat Avatar, honestly)
The Hobbit
Titanic
Hunger Games
Avengers

Thoughts?

Wings of Music · « **Reply #1 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:31:34 PM »

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 12:22:47 PM

The Dark Knight Rises (has a chance to beat Avatar, honestly)
The Hobbit
Titanic
Hunger Games
Avengers

If it were just the Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit it would be a big year. I think that both of those movies have a legitimate chance to not only beat but possibly dismantle Avatar's attendance. I'm not sure exactly how much each will get but it will be massive no doubt.

1: The Hobbit - After years of anticipation it's finally coming, I've never been more excited to see a movie than I am about seeing The Hobbit.

2: The Dark Knight Rises - I look forward to this one, but not anywhere even close to the level of anticipation that I have for The Hobbit, I'm sure that this will be good though.

3:Hunger Games - The Hunger Games has become a cultural phenomenon (much to my disgust) so I expect high attendance.

4: Titanic - Re-releases apparently do well so I'll put it 4th.

5: Avengers - A bad year to release this one, since it's over-shadowed by so many other block-busters.

Anyway those are my thoughts.

soul seeker · « **Reply #2 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:35:15 PM »

I disagree on Titantic. It is an "R" and therefore has a much more limited audience than the other movies. The economy is different as well, and I would be surprised that people would go out and see it again. Also, the actors are not headliners now...Leonardo is still mildly popular, but I don't even remember the Redhead's name. I wouldn't put it in top 5.

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #3 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:37:03 PM »

The Hobbit and The Dark Knight Rises will probably both hit the top 5 grossing films of all time. The second Hobbit has a really good shot at beating Avatar. I really hope Titanic flops.

Wings of Music · « **Reply #4 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:41:14 PM »

Quote from: Ring Wraith on March 23, 2012, 12:37:03 PM

I really hope Titanic flops.

My personal hope is that the Hunger Games flops completely.

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #5 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:44:00 PM »

Quote from: Wings of Music on March 23, 2012, 12:41:14 PM

Quote from: Ring Wraith on March 23, 2012, 12:37:03 PM
I really hope Titanic flops.

My personal hope is that the Hunger Games flops completely.

I have not read the books or seen the movie yet, but supposedly they're great works of fiction (unlike Twilight...). What do you have against them?

Chronic Apathy · « **Reply #6 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:51:49 PM »

Quote from: soul seeker on March 23, 2012, 12:35:15 PM

I disagree on Titantic. It is an "R" and therefore has a much more limited audience than the other movies. The economy is different as well, and I would be surprised that people would go out and see it again. Also, the actors are not headliners now...Leonardo is still mildly popular, but I don't even remember the Redhead's name. I wouldn't put it in top 5.

Titanic is only a PG13 rating, andLeonardo DiCaprio just got off his biggest film since Titanic a couple years ago (Inception). Kate Winslet was never popular aside from Titanic. I think you're underestimating the performance the movie will have, especially when you consider the movie was never about who was in it, it was about the story and romance (and the ship sinking - I mean, come on, how great a sequence was that).

Quote from: Wings of Music on March 23, 2012, 12:41:14 PM

My personal hope is that the Hunger Games flops completely.

Too late. It's already broken Box Office release date records. Is there a reason you don't like it? I liked the books.

soul seeker · « **Reply #7 on:** March 23, 2012, 12:57:53 PM »

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 12:51:49 PM

Quote from: soul seeker on March 23, 2012, 12:35:15 PM
I disagree on Titantic. It is an "R" and therefore has a much more limited audience than the other movies. The economy is different as well, and I would be surprised that people would go out and see it again. Also, the actors are not headliners now...Leonardo is still mildly popular, but I don't even remember the Redhead's name. I wouldn't put it in top 5.

Titanic is only a PG13 rating, andLeonardo DiCaprio just got off his biggest film since Titanic a couple years ago (Inception). Kate Winslet was never popular aside from Titanic. I think you're underestimating the performance the movie will have, especially when you consider the movie was never about who was in it, it was about the story and romance (and the ship sinking - I mean, come on, how great a sequence was that).

There is no way (in my mind) that Titantic is PG13! There are elements* in that movie that clearly warrant a deserved rating of R (*I originally typed it until I realized that this is in off topic). If it does have that terribly low rating, then I would be aghast that tweens and young teens could see that movie.

EDIT: I looked it up on PluggedIn and to my dismay it is a PG-13. The rating is wrong in my opinion. Christians should avoid this movie in theaters or rental and stick to its edited version. How disappointing.

YourMathTeacher · « **Reply #8 on:** March 23, 2012, 01:00:52 PM »

I think Avengers and The Hobbit will have the broadest appeal. As a conservative parent, I have no interest in taking my family to Titantic, Hunger Games, or The Dark Knight.

The Hobbit definitely has hype and a large following. There was already a huge Tolkien fanbase before the LotR movies came out. The movies only increased that total.

The Avengers has an equally large following, especially since it eclipses generations and is (generally) family-friendly.

I realize that the Dark Knight had good reviews, but parents like me find it too dark for children.

Hunger Games will do well due to its current popularity, but parents are already up-in-arms on the internet, so there will be lost revenue from a large population base.

The Titantic was a good movie to see once. I would never watch it a second time.

I realize that my opinion will be unpopular on these Boards, but I do represent a rather large paying audience type.

Wings of Music · « **Reply #9 on:** March 23, 2012, 01:01:40 PM »

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 12:51:49 PM

Quote from: Wings of Music on March 23, 2012, 12:41:14 PM
My personal hope is that the Hunger Games flops completely.

Too late. It's already broken Box Office release date records. Is there a reason you don't like it? I liked the books.

To be honest I haven't read the books

. I am sort of familiar with the story line though, and it didn't seem all that extraordinary IMO. My main problem with them is that I just don't like how they've become a cultural phenomenon. I think society could waste their time doing better things, like playing Redemption * cough *

Chronic Apathy · « **Reply #10 on:** March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM »

Quote from: Wings of Music on March 23, 2012, 01:01:40 PM

To be honest I haven't read the books . I am sort of familiar with the story line though, and it didn't seem all that extraordinary IMO. My main problem with them is that I just don't like how they've become a cultural phenomenon. I think society could waste their time doing better things, like playing Redemption * cough *

That's a pretty bad reason to hope something fails. "Don't knock it 'til you've tried it."

Quote from: soul seeker on March 23, 2012, 12:57:53 PM

There is no way (in my mind) that Titantic is PG13! There are elements* in that movie that clearly warrant a deserved rating of R (*I originally typed it until I realized that this is in off topic). If it does have that terribly low rating, then I would be aghast that tweens and young teens could see that movie.

The way the ratings system works now (which is much, much more strict), Titanic would definitely garner an R rating, however, in 1997, a PG13 rating was much more lax. To be fair, the scene you're talking about is very brief, however, I do understand what you mean, and I agree with you.

YourMathTeacher, I'm curious, why is The Avengers okay but The Hunger Games is not? The Avengers doesn't have a rating yet, but it's safe to say it's going to pull a hard PG13 rating, same as The Hunger Games, and frankly, The Avengers is much more likely to have a fair amount of language (to be fair, I'm not seeing The Hunger Games until tonight, so maybe a strong amount of language will end up surprising me). Let me put it this way: Do you think Iron Man (or Iron Man 2) would be more appropriate than The Hunger Games? That's probably the kind of content The Avengers is likely to have, especially with Joss Whedon at the helm (cue fanboy squealing). If so (and I'm not judging you if you think it is), why?

Quote

I realize that my opinion will be unpopular on these Boards, but I do represent a rather large paying audience type.

You can't hit every demographic, and pretty much every movie on this list (except The Hobbit) isn't aiming for the small conservative Christian market. At the end of the day, the two best grossing movies of all time (not adjusted for inflation) both contain a lot of objectionable material, which proves that opinions such as yours (which I certainly don't dismiss, so please please please don't be insulted) don't have much weight on actual box office performance.

STAMP · « **Reply #11 on:** March 23, 2012, 01:35:48 PM »

I couldn't care less about the "almighty dollar". I go to movies to be entertained, nothing more. That being said, here are the movies I plan on seeing on the big silver screen:

Avengers (just because without my fishing vest, I'm just a genius, billionnaire, playboy, philanthropist)
Dark Shadows (I used to play the board game as a kid)
Battleship (gotta see at least one comedy)
MiB III (Back in Black, baby...{cue guitar riff})
Snow White and the Huntsman (that's right...kiddie movie remade as an action flick. Kinda makes me yearn for a zombie version of Sleepless in Seattle)
Prometheus (fingers crossed that Predator makes a cameo)
Rock of Ages (so I can do some pre-booing of Cruise who's been cast as Jack Reacher)
GI Joe (pure adrenalin ride, kiddos...and Bruce Willis makes a cameo)
The Dark Knight Rises (seriously, I don't think it gets near the attendance they're predicting...but gotta see nonetheless)
The Bourne Legacy (Jason Bourne-less notwithstanding, I'll need an additional jolt of adrenaline to avoid withdrawal)
Expendables 2 (will check into the Betty Ford clinic in the room next to Lindsey to treat my adrenaline addiction

)

**These movie selections in no way represent a recommendation for anyone else to see.

Wings of Music · « **Reply #12 on:** March 23, 2012, 01:38:51 PM »

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM

Quote from: Wings of Music on March 23, 2012, 01:01:40 PM
To be honest I haven't read the books . I am sort of familiar with the story line though, and it didn't seem all that extraordinary IMO. My main problem with them is that I just don't like how they've become a cultural phenomenon. I think society could waste their time doing better things, like playing Redemption * cough *

That's a pretty bad reason to hope something fails. "Don't knock it 'til you've tried it."

I never said I had a good one.

SomeKittens · « **Reply #13 on:** March 23, 2012, 01:40:46 PM »

A few points
1.) In terms of quality (not money) DKR won't even hit top five. It'll still be a good movie, but it'll be overshadowed by TDK. It'll still make a boatload of money.
2.) Of the five, Avengers is my favorite. I'll admit, I've been shying away from Hunger Games (avoiding spoilers until I can read the books), but I know the other four.
3.) Remember, when movie gross is adjusted for inflation, Avatar is 14th. First is Gone With the Wind, then Star Wars IV.
4.) The largest-grossing moviegoing audience is teenagers. They have the highest disposable income (as a percentage of total income). That said, family-friendly movies will make more.

Also:

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM

That's probably the kind of content The Avengers is likely to have, especially with Joss Whedon at the helm (cue fanboy squealing).

SQUEEEEEE! (Also, I'm a Robert Downey Jr. fan)

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #14 on:** March 23, 2012, 02:05:29 PM »

I have a feeling DKR will be disappointing (mostly because it's the last), but still huge.

Quote from: STAMP on March 23, 2012, 01:35:48 PM

The Bourne Legacy (Jason Bourne-less notwithstanding, I'll need an additional jolt of adrenaline to avoid withdrawal)

I totally forgot about that movie. I'm going to lose so much money to the theaters this year...

Chronic Apathy · « **Reply #15 on:** March 23, 2012, 02:13:00 PM »

Quote from: SomeKittens on March 23, 2012, 01:40:46 PM

That said, family-friendly movies will make more.

Avatar is far from family friendly, and Titanic even is even farther from family friendly, and these two are the highest selling movies of all time (again, not adjusted for inflation). Unless your definition of "family friendly" is a very liberal one (Avatar for instance, has a fair amount of language and violence, which would not put off most parents), you're kind of forced to conclude that this definition is wrong. Plenty of kids who are under 13 are going to be taken to see The Dark Knight Rises at some point, likewise for The Hunger Games, likewise for The Hobbit (which may actually manage to score a PG rating, though Part II would have to sacrifice quality for a PG rating). Family friendly movies will not make more money, movies that are not rated R will make more money. A hard PG13 rating doesn't even exist anymore. 15 years ago, as Titanic proved, it was possible to pick up a PG13 rating with some minor nudity and a couple F words. These days, two F words is an automatic R rating regardless of other content, except in a few extreme circumstances.

Quote

SQUEEEEEE! (Also, I'm a Robert Downey Jr. fan)

I know! Me too! SQUEEEE!

SomeKittens · « **Reply #16 on:** March 23, 2012, 02:46:46 PM »

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 02:13:00 PM

Quote from: SomeKittens on March 23, 2012, 01:40:46 PM
That said, family-friendly movies will make more.

Avatar is far from family friendly, and Titanic even is even farther from family friendly, and these two are the highest selling movies of all time (again, not adjusted for inflation). Unless your definition of "family friendly" is a very liberal one (Avatar for instance, has a fair amount of language and violence, which would not put off most parents), you're kind of forced to conclude that this definition is wrong. Plenty of kids who are under 13 are going to be taken to see The Dark Knight Rises at some point, likewise for The Hunger Games, likewise for The Hobbit (which may actually manage to score a PG rating, though Part II would have to sacrifice quality for a PG rating). Family friendly movies will not make more money, movies that are not rated R will make more money. A hard PG13 rating doesn't even exist anymore. 15 years ago, as Titanic proved, it was possible to pick up a PG13 rating with some minor nudity and a couple F words. These days, two F words is an automatic R rating regardless of other content, except in a few extreme circumstances.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier
Studios make more money from family flicks on average.

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 02:13:00 PM

Quote
SQUEEEEEE! (Also, I'm a Robert Downey Jr. fan)

I know! Me too! SQUEEEE!

I can't post the link here as originally intended (language), but you've got a PM.

Prof Underwood · « **Reply #17 on:** March 23, 2012, 03:38:05 PM »

Quote from: soul seeker on March 23, 2012, 12:57:53 PM

I looked it up on PluggedIn and to my dismay it is a PG-13. The rating is wrong in my opinion. Christians should avoid this movie in theaters or rental and stick to its edited version. How disappointing.

I completely agree with Soul Seeker. Titanic should have been rated R. I've avoided it all these years due to an 5-min scene of female nudity, and I'll skip it again in re-release. I also doubt that it will be in the top 5 movies this year (at least I hope so).

The main problem with the Dark Knight Rises, is that it will inevitably suffer comparisons to TDK, and it is almost impossible to be able to live up to those expectations. When Health Ledger died, it elevated that movie to immortal status in too many critics and people's minds. Unless it is just completely awesome, it will probably be a movie people see once, but not repeatedly, and therefore also won't be able to break into the top 5.

The Hobbit has a similar problem because of comparisons to LOTR. However, since it has the same director, and apparently the same feel, I think it will suffer less from those comparisons. I think this has a GREAT chance to make it into the top 5.

I think the best shots at top 5 belong to Hunger Games and the Avengers. Both of those appeal to both male and female teenagers (who are the most likely to be responsible for repeat viewings), and combine action, romance, cool special effects that are more fun in a theater, and have been built up for the past couple years by either the books or the single comic-book hero movies respectively.

So besides those 3 (Hobbit, Hunger, Avengers) the other 2 movies that I suspect will be in the top 5 will be:
1 - Whatever movie Pixar comes out with
2 - Something totally unexpected that we haven't even mentioned yet.

YourMathTeacher · « **Reply #18 on:** March 23, 2012, 03:47:33 PM »

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM

That's a pretty bad reason to hope something fails. "Don't knock it 'til you've tried it."

Please don't use this philosophy with any illegal activities...

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM

YourMathTeacher, I'm curious, why is The Avengers okay but The Hunger Games is not?

Your interpretation of "objectionable material" may simply not be the same as mine. Hunger Games represents a philosophy that I do not want my children exposed to. Having children kill other children for entertainment is not my idea of a family movie.

Avengers, on the other hand, represents the philosophy that super heroes will defeat super villians. This is generally a family friendly ideal.

Realize that Iron Man is the least favorite of my super heroes because of the demeanor of Tony Stark. I used to like Batman, but I really don't like The Dark Knight, since these are not the same person in my opinion, much like Robin and Night Wing are not the same.

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM

You can't hit every demographic,...

My demographic is as a conservative parent, not necessarily a Christian parent. Also, certain genres and ratings eliminate population groups entirely, whereas "family-friendly" movies do not.

Quote from: Chronic Apathy on March 23, 2012, 01:31:27 PM

... don't have much weight on actual box office performance.

Your numbers are skewed, as pointed out by SK. Also, if the top 50 movies are perused, I would hazard a guess that a majority of them are "family friendly."

FTR, I think Hunger Games will do very well. My students are looking forward to it, mostly because they were forced to read it over the summer as part of the required Summer Reading List. The county has already set up dates to take groups of students together. I find this disturbing, of course, but it will nonetheless help the money pour in. I'm sure that this book was on many school systems' required reading list, much like Twilight and Happy Potter before it (and we know they did well at the box office).

sk · « **Reply #19 on:** March 23, 2012, 04:30:26 PM »

Spider-Man will outgross Titanic.

I agree with Underwood on Dark Knight, but since Inception succeeded solely on Nolan's name, I don't think it's going to be a let down unless the villains are very weak (which concerns me since Bane is hard to understand, Hathaway has only done weird R roles lately, and the good Inception guy is in an unannounced role).

PG-13 always means the film was rated R, but the studio has enough money to convince the MPAA to re-rate it PG-13. Spielberg invented this in case Indiana Jones got an R and the practice stuck.

And re: Hunger Games, remember that DiVinci Code, a weak film and iffy book, succeeded solely because conservatives hated it. HG is said to be a decent read as well, so I think it has a good chance at top gross this year and a couple Oscars

lp670sv · « **Reply #20 on:** March 23, 2012, 04:36:17 PM »

The Perks of Being A Wallflower. All your argument are invalid.

On a more serious note, I can't wait to see The Dark Knight Rises. I will probably go see Titanic. The rest, probably not, but I'm not much of a movie goer.

Warrior_Monk · « **Reply #21 on:** March 23, 2012, 04:38:52 PM »

Quote from: lp670sv on March 23, 2012, 04:36:17 PM

The Perks of Being A Wallflower. All your argument are invalid.

On a more serious note, I can't wait to see The Dark Knight Rises. I will probably go see Titanic. The rest, probably not, but I'm not much of a movie goer.

YOU'RE GOING TO TITANIC BUT NOT THE HOBBIT? WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU?!

Chronic Apathy · « **Reply #22 on:** March 23, 2012, 04:39:42 PM »

I don't mean to sound rude or disrespectful Mark*, but The Dark Knight Rises not even being in top 5 grossing movies for this year has got to be the most foolish thing I've ever heard. Look at the difference in quality between Batman Begins and The Dark Knight. They are at roughly the same quality, except everyone involved seemed to be a bit better at their jobs with one movie down, and of course, Heath Ledger absolutely nailed his role. The writing, acting, and overall direction is at roughly the same level. Heath Ledger's death did indeed add to the hype of the movie, but I think that six months later, it wasn't as driving a force for the movie as it would have been if Ledger had died, say, a month before the release of the movie. This seems to be an unpopular opinion, but I still like to voice it when these debates come up all the same. Even so, The Dark Knight lived up to a lot of the hype, more than the vast majority of sequels (or any movies) do. When we look at Christopher Nolan's track record, there's literally not a bad movie in the bunch, at least looking at critical reviews. His most popular movies of course are the two Batman movies and Inception, and that's literally half (if we round down) of the movies he's released, not to mention that The Prestige is also a very popular (and acclaimed) movie. What I'm getting at here is that, regardless of whether The Dark Rises can live up to the hype, there's absolutely no reason to assume it's going to be in any way, shape, or form a bad movie. Put simply, I have every reason to assume The Dark Knight Rises will be (and I like the way you put this), "just completely awesome," and people will most definitely see it multiple times. I will be fundamentally shocked if it doesn't place number one in the box office this year (I could maybe - maybe - see it placing number two next to The Hobbit, but since The Hobbit is a 2-parter, I don't think so).

Chronic Apathy · « **Reply #23 on:** March 23, 2012, 04:40:10 PM »

Quote

Your interpretation of "objectionable material" may simply not be the same as mine. Hunger Games represents a philosophy that I do not want my children exposed to. Having children kill other children for entertainment is not my idea of a family movie.

I'm curious, have you read The Hunger Games or do you otherwise have an understanding of the plot? The entire point of the movie isn't to celebrate the free-for-all, it's to represent the disgusting power of the rich over the poor. The Hunger Games themselves are supposed to be a metaphor, and they're never, at any point in the series, celebrated by any of the protagonists. I understand if you simply don't like the subject matter being used as a form of entertainment, but the actual philosophy in the books doesn't glorify the violence or the nature of having kids killing kids, it condemns it. I think that part of what Collins was trying to do was write something with the same kind of power that 1984 or A Brave New World (especially the latter) have, albeit aiming for entertainment more than any actual lesson-learning. If you do know what the plot is about, then I apologize, but I wouldn't want you to condemn the franchise because you got the wrong message from the commercials or an overeager student or something like that.

Quote from: YourMathTeacher on March 23, 2012, 03:47:33 PM

My demographic is as a conservative parent, not necessarily a Christian parent. Also, certain genres and ratings eliminate population groups entirely, whereas "family-friendly" movies do not.

You know, I'm not sure I agree with that last statement, though that largely depends on our definition of family-friendly, which can vary wildly, especially since I have no idea what you would find offensive or not. For instance, would we call the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie "family-friendly" or not? What about a movie like Juno? The bounds of "family-friendly" aren't well defined, so it's hard to argue against either of our positions because we could be referring to entirely different things. However, I think "family-friendly" movies, if we use a relatively tight definition do tend to alienate different demographics (not eliminate, but enough to make a difference). For instance, Pixar is one of the only studios who can release a G or PG rated movie and get a lot of people in the 18-25 demographic to see it. A G rating tends to limit a movie to children and their parents, unless it's of especially high quality (i.e. Pixar) in the same way that a PG13 rating tends to limit a movie to pre-teens, teens, and adults, unless it's especially good.

Quote

Your numbers are skewed, as pointed out by SK. Also, if the top 50 movies are perused, I would hazard a guess that a majority of them are "family friendly."

Again, this depends entirely on one's definition of family friendly, since there's a lot of franchises on the list that will push the results heavily one way or the other. Top 50 Movies. Is Twilight family friendly? Is Transformers? Is Harry Potter? Is Lord of the Rings? Is Star Wars? Is Pirates of the Caribbean? Just those franchises make up almost half that list (and this is just the top 50, mind), so it really could go either way. I'm actually curious that, of those franchises, which you think would be considered family friendly.

lp670sv · « **Reply #24 on:** March 23, 2012, 04:41:50 PM »

Why did I type Titanic? It must have been me thinking about Soul Seeker's post cause I actually have zero interest in seeing the movie, and meant to say the hobbit. My mind needs to stop wandering mid post.

Edit: The twilight saga is in the top 50 twice. Nope. I'm done. Suicide just became the answer.

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Author Topic: Five Big Movies Come Out This Year - Box Office Predictions? (Read 7484 times)

Chronic Apathy

Warrior_Monk

Warrior_Monk

Chronic Apathy

Chronic Apathy

Warrior_Monk

Chronic Apathy

Warrior_Monk

Chronic Apathy

Chronic Apathy