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Open Forum => Off-Topic => Topic started by: EmJayBee83 on June 29, 2009, 04:57:43 PM

Title: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: EmJayBee83 on June 29, 2009, 04:57:43 PM
As we are talking elsewhere about tournament mechanics, I would like to toss one other topic out there for discussion by the powers that be...

For State and higher can we up the minimum number of required rounds to be at least one more than is listed currently. Simply put, if you play only the minimum number of rounds listed the tournament is effectively a single-elimination event. The tournament host's guide speaks all about the advantages of Swiss-style tourneys compared to single elimination, but all of that is lost if you only host the current minimum number of required rounds.

Although the same holds true for local and district tournaments, I don't feel so strongly about those because there are a lot more chances to pick up district and local points. There are, however, limited opportunities to pick up State and Regional points, and it would stink to have your entire tournament decided by one horrendous draw.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: crustpope on June 29, 2009, 06:16:06 PM
I agree, I tend to feel that the more rounds the better with in reasonable time limits.  Especially for bigger tournaments
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Minister Polarius on June 29, 2009, 07:47:57 PM
I agree entirely. I also think the allotted time for each action is far too generous, so we could kill two birds with one stone by drastically shortening allotted time to act and requiring at least one more round.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 29, 2009, 08:09:19 PM
What benefits over elimination are wiped out by playing the required number of rounds, and why is it preferred to have more rounds than the statistically perfect number to determine a winner?
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: DaClock on June 29, 2009, 08:29:59 PM
By having the perfect number of rounds to determine a winner, you don't give anyone a chance to take first place except for the undefeated. This is true of elimination tournaments as well, the only first place possibility is the undefeated. By playing extra rounds you allow more people to have a shot at first place, people that lost or tied a game somewhere along the way.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: lightningninja on June 29, 2009, 08:31:46 PM
We played 5 rounds at Bryon's regional. There was a 3-way tie for first, where we had to resolve to a combination of head to head and soul differential (we had all played each other). That worked out well... but I can see your point if it could have been a little messier. So I'm not apposed to that.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: robm on June 29, 2009, 08:36:36 PM
At smaller tournaments, its nice when you get to play all the players in a category.   ;D
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 29, 2009, 08:43:38 PM
By having the perfect number of rounds to determine a winner, you don't give anyone a chance to take first place except for the undefeated. This is true of elimination tournaments as well, the only first place possibility is the undefeated. By playing extra rounds you allow more people to have a shot at first place, people that lost or tied a game somewhere along the way.

This actually is not statistically true.  Plenty of players have won plenty of tournaments without going undefeated.  Moreover, the standard method of applying the binary logarithm rounded up is used in many different tournament settings, including chess and bridge tournaments.  There are variations applied as well, but not because the winner can only be an undefeated player.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: lightningninja on June 29, 2009, 08:47:42 PM
@ROBM: Perhaps I should have clarified. All of us top three players had played each other.  ;)
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 29, 2009, 09:15:15 PM
At smaller tournaments, its nice when you get to play all the players in a category.

You want seven rounds of a category in an 8-player tournament?
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Prof Underwood on June 29, 2009, 09:22:24 PM
...why is it preferred to have more rounds...
Mainly because people came to the tournament to play Redemption.  The more rounds, the more they get to play.  I also like having an extra round where someone gets to try to knock off the undefeated person in 1st.  I think both of these are good reasons.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: robm on June 29, 2009, 09:35:01 PM
At smaller tournaments, its nice when you get to play all the players in a category.

You want seven rounds of a category in an 8-player tournament?

well when only four people come it is easy to do!
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 29, 2009, 09:48:15 PM
Mainly because people came to the tournament to play Redemption.  The more rounds, the more they get to play.

That is not a reason that Swiss is no better than elimination for determining a winner, nor does it answer the question of how Swiss automatically means an undefeated person in first.  People could play two official rounds of Redemption and then play the rest of the day and all night, as far as I'm concerned, it doesn't answer the question of going away from the statistical ideal.

Quote
I also like having an extra round where someone gets to try to knock off the undefeated person in 1st.

Again, a winner in a Swiss tournament is not necessarily undefeated; countless tournaments have been won with imperfect records.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: egilkinc on June 29, 2009, 10:51:02 PM
hey,
Elimination tournaments identify 1st by the winner of the last game and 2nd by the loser of the last game. This is a fine way of doing it. However, Swiss style pits the best player and the 2nd best player against each other in the second round. The 2nd best player looses and then, without the additional swiss round, doesn't have a chance to place. I have strongly felt all along that swiss style is not complete and does not demonstrate 2nd place-3rd place accurately unless additional rounds are played.
L8er,
Gil
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: EmJayBee83 on June 30, 2009, 12:03:26 AM
By having the perfect number of rounds to determine a winner, you don't give anyone a chance to take first place except for the undefeated.

This actually is not statistically true.
It actually is statistically true when the number of players is a power of 2 or one less than that. At that point if you lose one game you are out of contention for first (barring multiple time out wins by the undefeated player). So, at the recent MN State tournament where we had 31 T1-2P players, playing the minimum number of rounds it would have been equivalent to a one and done for players interested only in taking first.

It is also true, as Gil noted, that mathematically a Swiss system with the minimum number have a substantial chances of messing up the ordering of second and third places.

Lastly, I'm not sure comparisons of Redemption to either chess or bridge are particularly useful in this regard. Redemption has a much higher degree of randomness than either of those two games. If you are interested in identifying the "best" player, this randomness needs to be compensated for and the easiest way to do that is to add rounds.

Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Guardian on June 30, 2009, 01:35:40 AM
I definitely agree with this. Typically it doesn't affect me since I play T2 and there's always plenty of time for sufficient rounds, but from the times I play T1 its much more fun to know you still have a shot at first even if you have opening or 2nd round loss.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: RTSmaniac on June 30, 2009, 01:53:14 AM
more rounds eaqual more time that most host just do not have for the tournament day.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Guardian on June 30, 2009, 03:43:07 AM
Larger tournaments should typically be two days (Friday evening and all day Saturday). If you do two events side by side on Friday, there should be ample time to do 2 sets of 2 events on Saturday. Everyone has the chance to play 3 categories and there should be time to play enough rounds so that the events are not essentially single elimination (as far as getting 1st).

If a host is unable to run events on Friday night, then they should do 3 events together* and everyone would just get to participate in 2 of them, and that would also mean more winners so not necessarily a bad thing either.

*If there's not enough people to do 3 events together then you likely don't have the issue of not having time for sufficient rounds.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 30, 2009, 07:01:10 AM
However, Swiss style pits the best player and the 2nd best player against each other in the second round. The 2nd best player looses and then, without the additional swiss round, doesn't have a chance to place. I have strongly felt all along that swiss style is not complete and does not demonstrate 2nd place-3rd place accurately unless additional rounds are played.

How do you figure that the person playing either of the top two players in the second round placing are the best players in that category?  It's just a result of the pairing after one game.   That's the point of a Swiss style, is that players face different competitors every match, and the people at the top are ones who beat more and better players over the course of the tournament.

Quote
It actually is statistically true when the number of players is a power of 2 or one less than that. At that point if you lose one game you are out of contention for first (barring multiple time out wins by the undefeated player).

I don't see how this proves that only an undefeated player can win a category.  You seem to fall into the same trap as everybody else, assuming that one (in the interest of completeness - and only one) person will always be undefeated.  Seriously, has no one here ever attended a tournament that has ever had a winner that did not go undefeated?  Ever?
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Minister Polarius on June 30, 2009, 07:09:36 AM
Only at Nationals. Every other tournament I've been to, District and up, has had an undefeated winner. And I don't think Natz is the tournament in question here.

I know mine is only one example, but just to throw that in there.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 30, 2009, 08:05:16 AM
Obviously Nationals is not, because it has extra rounds.

... in T1-2P only.

And why District and up?  Have you never attended a Local, or have you had locals with one-loss winners?
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Minister Polarius on June 30, 2009, 08:29:35 AM
I've been to some round-robin locals. It's a lot easier to go undefeated for 4-5 rounds than it is for 7-10.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Captain Kirk on June 30, 2009, 09:41:48 AM
Only at Nationals. Every other tournament I've been to, District and up, has had an undefeated winner. And I don't think Natz is the tournament in question here.

I know mine is only one example, but just to throw that in there.

Sorry, but that is an untruth...  ;)  Last year at SE Regionals which you attended, the winner of T1 2p, Ben Shadrick, had one loss.  I know that because I handed it to him.

Outside of that tournament, however, I believe I can make the same argument, concerning T1 2p.

Kirk
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: EmJayBee83 on June 30, 2009, 11:05:49 AM
Quote from: EmJayBee83
It actually is statistically true when the number of players is a power of 2 or one less than that. At that point if you lose one game you are out of contention for first (barring multiple time out wins by the undefeated player).

I don't see how this proves that only an undefeated player can win a category.
Stephen, set up a four player two-round tournament (or an eight player three-round tournament or...) and use Swiss pairings. Show me how a player with one or more losses can possibly win the tournament (barring multiple time out wins by the undefeated player).

Quote
You seem to fall into the same trap as everybody else, assuming that one (in the interest of completeness - and only one) person will always be undefeated.
In tournament where you play n rounds, and there are 2n players, one player will always go undefeated. It is a mathematical necessity based on how Swiss pairing works.

Quote
Seriously, has no one here ever attended a tournament that has ever had a winner that did not go undefeated?  Ever?
This happens all the time when you play more than the minimum number of rounds, or when you are just slightly over the threshold for the next round bump (say 9 players forcing four rounds). Both of those, however, are exactly what I am asking about wrt extra rounds.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 30, 2009, 11:53:54 AM
Stephen, set up a four player two-round tournament (or an eight player three-round tournament or...) and use Swiss pairings. Show me how a player with one or more losses can possibly win the tournament (barring multiple time out wins by the undefeated player).

A four-player category could just play round-robin.  Do not confuse the question of whether Swiss MUST ALWAYS result in an undefeated winner, with the question of whether Swiss is ideal in all situations.

You are correct that the winner will be undefeated IF the number of players exactly matches the binary algorithm.  But a). how often does that happen when you get beyond 8 players, and b). in order for the winner of that category to go undefeated, he must beat an undefeated player in every single round.  What we seem to be forgetting about Swiss is that it pushes players who win consistently to the top, and so the players defeated in later rounds are not going to be also-rans that just lucked into winning, but people who are themselves in contention to win.  Why should we NOT reward the player who beat everyone he faced, including all the people who rose up to the #2 slot in the tournament?

Quote
This happens all the time when you play more than the minimum number of rounds, or when you are just slightly over the threshold for the next round bump (say 9 players forcing four rounds).

But it's a threshhold for a reason.  A four-round ten player tournament is no different than one with 14 or 16 players, in that four rounds will determine a winner, in most circumstances going undefeated is not 100% required, and in the one case where it is, the winner defeated everyone in front of him, no one else was undefeated, and there are so many different scenarios once you have 16+ players that the number of rounds before every one-loss player gets one crack at the champion could as much as double the play time.  Don't you have to pull the plug at some point?  I can see the logic in recommending extra rounds in certain situations but I don't agree with the idea of changing the rule to fit the exception.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: RTSmaniac on June 30, 2009, 02:18:44 PM
from the response of the thread i think we can agree that such an issue has at least been questioned and strongly deserves attention
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Prof Underwood on June 30, 2009, 02:34:51 PM
A four-round ten player tournament is no different than one with 14 or 16 players, in that four rounds will determine a winner, in most circumstances going undefeated is not 100% required
Actually I think that most of the time the winner will be undefeated.  After 1 round, there would be 5 undefeated players matching up.  After 2 rounds, there would be 2-3 undefeated players matching up.  After 3 rounds there would be 1-2 undefeated players matching up.  If that number was 2, then there would have to be an undefeated player.  The only way for this to not be the case is if someone lost a game, worked their way back up to the championship game in the 4th round and defeated the last undefeated player (or multiple timeouts).

Based on the experience of people who have been to a lot of tournaments (Pol, Kirk, etc.), this just doesn't happen very often.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: EmJayBee83 on June 30, 2009, 02:43:16 PM
But it's a threshhold for a reason.  A four-round ten player tournament is no different than one with 14 or 16 players, in that four rounds will determine a winner, in most circumstances going undefeated is not 100% required, and in the one case where it is, the winner defeated everyone in front of him, no one else was undefeated, and there are so many different scenarios once you have 16+ players that the number of rounds before every one-loss player gets one crack at the champion could as much as double the play time.
Heckuva run on sentence, dude.  :)

The problem with the threshold argument is that the probabilities of being able to win with one loss drop quickly as the number of players over the thresh hold increase and they drop to 0 when you end up with 2n -1 or 2n playing. So we agree that at the top end of the count where the number of players equals 2n (or 2n - 1) a Swiss-paired tournament is equivalent to a one and done tournament when it comes to winning.

"Thank you for putting in your long drive to get to Regionals. Unfortunately, if you get a horrendous three-LS draw in round one, your chance of winning the tournament is zero. Have fun, guys."

As far as doubling the play time goes, here's what I suggested...

For State and higher can we up the minimum number of required rounds to be at least one more than is listed currently.
I can't see that in the general case adding a single round is going to double play time. Nor can I understand why anyone would think that I am asking that "every one-loss player gets one crack at the champion."

Quote
Don't you have to pull the plug at some point?  I can see the logic in recommending extra rounds in certain situations but I don't agree with the idea of changing the rule to fit the exception.
I understand that. In the specific case under discussion I am asking that we pull the plug at State, Regional, and National tournaments. I feel the extra round should be granted for these tournaments precisely because Cactus limits the availability of these tournaments. This means a player can lose his/her only chance at a State/Regional title solely because he had a single horrible draw in one game.

My personal preference would be to change the thresholds for all tournaments from 8 (3), 16 (4), 32 (5), 64 (6) to 6 (3), 12 (4), 24 (5), 48 (6). This would, however, most likely end up upping the number of rounds at a significant number of Locals and Districts, and I understand that it could add to the burdens of the host.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: CactusRob on June 30, 2009, 03:45:41 PM
For State and higher can we up the minimum number of required rounds to be at least one more than is listed currently. Simply put, if you play only the minimum number of rounds listed the tournament is effectively a single-elimination event. The tournament host's guide speaks all about the advantages of Swiss-style tourneys compared to single elimination, but all of that is lost if you only host the current minimum number of required rounds.

I think you are seeing this upside down.  I don't set a maximum number of rounds to determine a winner, I set a Minimum.  I give the local Host, presumably with the input of his or her players, the freedom to play extra rounds if it works for them.  What works well in MN for Bill Voigt may not be best for Ginger in MD.  In other words, if you want more rounds you should make it known to your host.  I am not going to require more rounds than are needed to determine a winner.  It's already quite a task to host a six category event.  The hosts are in a much better position than am I to determine what works best in their area.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: Prof Underwood on June 30, 2009, 04:27:10 PM
As always, Rob has a good point.  Hosts can have the extra round if they want.  And as a host, I think I will try to start doing this.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 30, 2009, 04:51:37 PM
Actually I think that most of the time the winner will be undefeated.  After 1 round, there would be 5 undefeated players matching up.  After 2 rounds, there would be 2-3 undefeated players matching up.  After 3 rounds there would be 1-2 undefeated players matching up.  If that number was 2, then there would have to be an undefeated player.  The only way for this to not be the case is if someone lost a game, worked their way back up to the championship game in the 4th round and defeated the last undefeated player (or multiple timeouts).

There are four rounds.  So if there is only one undefeated player left, and he gets beat, a one-loss player wins.  And I don't see the problem with declaring someone the winner if he beats 4 out of 9 possible opponents, including 3 undefeateds and a one-loss second-place.

I can't see that in the general case adding a single round is going to double play time. Nor can I understand why anyone would think that I am asking that "every one-loss player gets one crack at the champion."

It's not that you're asking.  It's that right now, with an undefeated player and a cluster of one-loss players, the top guy who didn't play him is going to complain that he didn't have a chance to play him.  If you add one round, the next guy in line complains that he didn't have a chance to play him.  You could easily add three extra rounds to even a smallish tournament just to make sure every one-loss gets to play the no-loss, or else you're in the same position you're in now, you just appeased one more player out of the field.

Quote
I understand that it could add to the burdens of the host.

It adds to the burdens at the upper levels as well.  Take it from someone who was trying to cram 135 participants into only three reasonable days of gaming across six categories.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: egilkinc on June 30, 2009, 07:29:53 PM
How do you figure that the person playing either of the top two players in the second round placing are the best players in that category? 

hey,
It is not quite as apparent in a game to only 5 points, but if we played to 10,000 points, it would be quite clear that the top player (getting 9,993 points in the first game) and the 2nd best player (getting 9,225 points in the first game) would be playing against each other in the second round. This is the design of swiss style - not just another pairing.

I'm fine with declaring the top player in n rounds (the minimum required for single-elimination), and I'm fine declaring the top player in n+1 rounds - they should be able to beat the 1+n th/st best player in the additional round.

The next-player-in-the-line doesn't have an argument at this point regarding not having the chance to play the top player.  They are paired according to their performance - their wins and their losses are to lower-ranked players compared to the top player. They had their chance, and the strength of swiss style shines through in that they end up closer to the bottom of the pack.

I totally see the need at some times to run only the minimum number (thanx, Rob for the perspective!), but I would love to see the tournament guide encourage the additional round(s) based on the 2nd-3rd place players position in the system.
L8er,
Gil

Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: The Schaef on June 30, 2009, 07:42:47 PM
It is not quite as apparent in a game to only 5 points, but if we played to 10,000 points, it would be quite clear that the top player (getting 9,993 points in the first game) and the 2nd best player (getting 9,225 points in the first game) would be playing against each other in the second round. This is the design of swiss style - not just another pairing.

The design of Swiss style is to reward consistently good play, not just one game.  THAT is the point, is that early rounds do not inherently put the two best players in the tournament at the top, only the two best scorers from one game.
Title: Re: Another SERIOUS Change Topic
Post by: EmJayBee83 on July 01, 2009, 02:18:55 AM
A four-round ten player tournament is no different than one with 14 or 16 players, in that four rounds will determine a winner, in most circumstances going undefeated is not 100% required
Actually I think that most of the time the winner will be undefeated.  After 1 round, there would be 5 undefeated players matching up.  After 2 rounds, there would be 2-3 undefeated players matching up.  After 3 rounds there would be 1-2 undefeated players matching up.  If that number was 2, then there would have to be an undefeated player.  The only way for this to not be the case is if someone lost a game, worked their way back up to the championship game in the 4th round and defeated the last undefeated player (or multiple timeouts).

Based on the experience of people who have been to a lot of tournaments (Pol, Kirk, etc.), this just doesn't happen very often.

Hey Prof, here are some numbers that lend credence to your belief.  Chris Bany has the scoring sheets for a bunch of past Nationals posted on the web at http://www.covenantgames.com/nationals/nationals.htm (http://www.covenantgames.com/nationals/nationals.htm) . Looking at that data we have the following results...

YearEventPlayersMin. RoundsUndefeated*
2008T1-2P917Chad Soderstrom
2008T2-2P506Tim Maly**
2007T1-2P847Daniel Whitten
2007T2-2P406none
2006T1-2P767none
2006T2-2P225Ross Lang**
2005T1-2P1237Justin Sangillo**
2005T2-2P265Eric Largent
2004T1-2P827Roy Cannady
2004T2-2P205Josh Hey**
2003T1-2P1027Kyle Hostutler**
2002T1-2P757Mike Turnidge
2002T2-2P185Bryon Hake**
*Undefeated after the minimum number of rounds.
**Went on to win the tournament.

So, in the thirteen two-player events (we have records for) from Nationals dating back to 2002, there have been two cases where we didn't have an undefeated player remaining after the minimum number of rounds were played. In slightly more than half the cases (six of eleven) did the player who was undefeated go on to win the tournament.
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