Author Topic: All About Baseball! (Read 27378 times)

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #25 on:** August 22, 2009, 12:45:46 AM »

I am just saying in general catchers get tired more quickly toward the end of the year than other fielders from crouching every game plus they don't get as much batting practice so the season batting tires them out more. Its a fact but not always true. Mauer last year was a case of where that doesn't always hold true. Mauer has it goin for him that he had the first two months of the year off, granted due to injury. I agree he will be considered but i just don't see it happening if the Twins finish third in their division. And honestly IMO I think he will finish the year batting under .360 though I got him on my fantasy team so I hope he jacks 6 HR's a week and keeps batting .380+!!

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #26 on:** August 22, 2009, 12:51:53 AM »

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 12:45:46 AM

I am just saying in general catchers get tired more quickly toward the end of the year than other fielders from crouching every game plus they don't get as much batting practice so the season batting tires them out more. Its a fact but not always true. Mauer last year was a case of where that doesn't always hold true. Mauer has it goin for him that he had the first two months of the year off, granted due to injury. I agree he will be considered but i just don't see it happening if the Twins finish third in their division. And honestly IMO I think he will finish the year batting under .360 though I got him on my fantasy team so I hope he jacks 6 HR's a week and keeps batting .380+!!

I'll just give up on this argument if you refuse to budge....

. Here are some things you should ponder though.

The Twins management has been very carefuly not to over-catch Mauer. He will often only catch 7 innings, which is usually when most catchers begin to complain of back soreness and hand numbness; and he spends time DH'ing every week.

The lower stats catchers get near end of games/late in the season are usually do to your hands not opening quick enough, due to the 200 100mph+ balls you catch per game. This affects most, but not Mauer. Mauer has a beautiful swing, and will foul off the pitches those other catchers will strike out on.

Mauer takes the normal amount of BP. If a pitcher needs warmed up, one of the back-up catchers warms him up. I've actually seen the CF warm up a pitcher when all the catchers were in use.

Like I said, even if his stats have a noticeable decline he is still light years ahead of the next candidate. The team he plays for will almost certainly not change the result.

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #27 on:** August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM »

I don't see why you think I am being so stubborn...I am giving Mauer tons of credit for a great season you just need to be open to the fact that there are other batters on more successful teams having great seasons as well. I agree IF Mauer keeps it up he will be highly considered but he's gotta keep it up and its less likely a catch (even Mauer) will do that over a fielder. Fielders basically only have to worry about batting. Mauer will certainly be batting better than any other catcher in the last months of the season but I am simply countering your overconfidence in Mauer winning...you never know what could happen. What if he keeps in up but Tex finishes the year with 40+ HR's and 140+ RBI's and bats .310+ on a league leading Yankees squad? You just dont know what could happen. Its not that I am not budging from my position because he is certainly a premier batter right now and should he continue on this pace he will be a legitimate contender.

redemptioncousin · « **Reply #28 on:** August 22, 2009, 01:03:53 AM »

Atlanta Braves for NL wild card! 11 for their last 16... I can hope.

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #29 on:** August 22, 2009, 01:14:51 AM »

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM

I don't see why you think I am being so stubborn...

Probably just my bias bleeding through

. No offense, but it is generally accepted Mauer is light years ahead. He is playing like your Ty Cobb and your Ted Williams, just beasting everything.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM

I am giving Mauer tons of credit for a great season you just need to be open to the fact that there are other batters on more successful teams having great seasons as well.

Yes, they are having great seasons and deserve props, but Mauer is having an AMAZING season. His season is that compares to the greats. No, Texiera is not a great. Youkilis is not a great. Longoria is not a great. Arod is not a great (maybe his best season....). Ted Williams is a great. Stan Musial is a great. Ty Cobb is a great. They do not compare.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM

I agree IF Mauer keeps it up he will be highly considered

Again, you need to realize how far ahead he is. If he keeps this up it is guaranteed. If goes cold 'til the end of the season he is still a heavy favorite.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM

but he's gotta keep it up and its less likely a catch (even Mauer) will do that over a fielder.

Well, last year stats disagree with you. Unless you'd like to give me your numbers I don't believe that.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM

Fielders basically only have to worry about batting. Mauer will certainly be batting better than any other catcher in the last months of the season but I am simply countering your overconfidence in Mauer winning...you never know what could happen.

I am accounting for that. If he goes Ortiz-cold he will still be considered. If he is injured, he will still be considered.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 01:01:02 AM

What if he keeps in up but Tex finishes the year with 40+ HR's and 140+ RBI's and bats .310+ on a league leading Yankees squad? You just dont know what could happen. Its not that I am not budging from my position because he is certainly a premier batter right now and should he continue on this pace he will be a legitimate contender.

Anyone can hit a home run in the Yankee stadium, use slugging. RBI's are a terrible stat. Use real stats, BA, SLG, OPS+, and OBP are the "good" stats, and it is near impossible for Tex to catch up to Mauer in those stats unless Mauer goes 0-300 in the rest of his games.

EDIT: I'll log back in tomorrow to argue some mor. I'm going to sleep now... good nigt

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #30 on:** August 22, 2009, 01:24:03 AM »

haha ok! I look forward to continuing this. I agree with all the players you called not greats except A-Rod...i dont see how he is not a great...his HR numbers are GREAT for his age. By the end of his career he will be home run king over barry bonds for sure. He is not having a great year this year but that is because he is battling injury that is harder to recover from than Mauer. I'm pullin for Mauer cuz I do love the guy and he is a spectacular player to watch but I just don't like to see everyone else ruled out with more than a month of baseball left!

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #31 on:** August 22, 2009, 02:24:27 PM »

Usually I don't want to exclude others from the MVP running, but Mauer is so far ahead. The Twins have about 40 games left, and lets say Mauer gets 3.5 (I believe that is his average) plate appearances each game. That would give him 140 plate appearances for the rest of the season. Mauer walks about once every 8.58 plate appearences (using this year statistics to calculate this), so we subtract 5 games off of that 140. Just add/divide the numbers and you realize if Joe Mauer plays every game till the end of the season (which he won't), the LOWEST possible batting average he can have is about .280. So, worst case scenario is the others have a small, very small, edge. Does anyone really think Mauer won't get a hit, though?

That is how big his lead his, and not just with BA, but with other categories too.

By "greats", I'm referring to the top of the top. Maybe the best 15 players all time, players like Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, ~~Pete Rose~~ EDIT: HAHA, don't know what I was thinking. Pete Rose is NOT a great. I knew he had the most career hits, but I just looked up his stats and was suprised., Babe Ruth, etc. Mauer's best season COMPARES WITH THE AVERAGE SEASON of these people (except Babe Ruth, Babe Ruth's average season was a lot better than Mauer's best season.)

Arod's isn't in there because his BA, OBP, and OPS+ are all notably lower and his SLG are about the same as "the greats". This means that he is/was a good hitter with great power. Home Runs don't prove greatness, especially now that he is playing in the most hitter friendly park in the game, the best stat to judge greatness is OPS+.

STAMP · « **Reply #32 on:** August 22, 2009, 02:55:11 PM »

I am neither a Yankees or Twins fan. But I will say this: Mauer and Pujols are the MVP's for each league. It is not even close. Pujols will win by a landslide. Fielder and Reynolds will fight it out for second. Texiera will come in a close second ONLY because he plays in New York. Otherwise, no one comes close to Mauer right now when you look at all the stats and what they do for their team.

YourMathTeacher · « **Reply #33 on:** August 22, 2009, 07:12:51 PM »

Nothing is a lock until the end of the year. Mauer deserves the strongest consideration, but here is a possible scenario (albeit biased for me):

The Red Sox have been slumping lately and the Yankees are pulling away in AL East. The Yankees had won five straight against the Sox, including last night's 20-11 stomp. Currently the Red Sox are beating the Yankees 12-1 in the 8th. Kevin Youkilis has two home runs and five RBIs. Youkilis gets hot at the end of the season (typically). He currently has .306 BA, 22 HR, and 71 RBI. If he continues hot and ends up .320, 35, 100+ and the Red Sox finish strong and make the playoffs, I would think the media would be hard-pressed to make him a serious contender for MVP, especially since he was a vote-getter last year. Youk plays all over the field, and is gold-glove quality at first and third base (he's lousy in the outfield, but his willingness earns him some votes). He gives 100% every inning of every game (which was why he always butt heads with Manny). He is the kind of guy that the media voters like, and he happens to play on a high profile team.

I don't mean this to sound like Mauer doesn't have better numbers, or give 100%, or makes his team better. Sometimes these votes are more political than anything else. The Twins simply don't get the same airtime or media coverage, which I admit is not fair.

My only point is that "It ain't over 'til the [horizontally challenged] lady sings."

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #34 on:** August 22, 2009, 07:47:05 PM »

Oh, wait. I just realized chances are Mauer won't win MVP even though he deserves it. I just remembered 99% of the voters look at RBI's and Homeruns to decide who gets it, and those possibly the two worst stats.

Like I said in my last few posts, there are scenarios where Mauer doesn't deserve the MVP, but do you know how unlikely those are? That would require Mauer going ice cold and Tex/Youk/Longo going Super Mauer-Hot.

Atleast Mauer will win a few MVP awards when he signs with the Red Sox in 2012

¹

¹ Unless Albert Pujols gets traded, or signed in 2012 by an AL team.

YourMathTeacher · « **Reply #35 on:** August 22, 2009, 07:52:42 PM »

Quote from: Rawrlolsauce! on August 22, 2009, 07:47:05 PM

Atleast Mauer will win a few MVP awards when he signs with the Red Sox in 2012

I wish.

Mauer has 25 HR and 75 RBI, so I would not consider those "weak" areas. The top HR guy (Pena) will not win the MVP. If the season ended right now, Mauer's biggest competition would be Justin Mourneau.

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #36 on:** August 22, 2009, 08:00:49 PM »

Quote from: YourMathTeacher on August 22, 2009, 07:52:42 PM

Quote from: Rawrlolsauce! on August 22, 2009, 07:47:05 PM
Atleast Mauer will win a few MVP awards when he signs with the Red Sox in 2012

I wish.

If he keeps his pace up next year you know that the Sox or Yankees will give him a massive contract after his MN one ends.¹

RBI is the worst stat, I don't even look at it. It measures how good the players in front of you are doing, which is why Mauer only has 75. The 2-spot for the Twins has been batting under .200 before we got Cabrera. Overall it just isn't a good stat, if you want a stat to measure clutch just look at BA, OPS+, and SLG with RISP.

Homeruns make me LOL. The stadium a player plays at really decides how many home runs they hit, a pop fly in Yankee stadium often finds a jet stream and goes out, an identically hit ball would be an out in most other stadiums. Slugging is really the best stat for power.

¹There is a small chance that Mauer stays with the Twins (>1%), beings he has the same agent Kirby Puckett had, and said agent was able to keep Kirby around....

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #37 on:** August 22, 2009, 10:32:52 PM »

Quote from: Rawrlolsauce! on August 22, 2009, 08:00:49 PM

RBI is the worst stat, I don't even look at it. It measures how good the players in front of you are doing

That is so false a statement I hardly even know what to say

. Put Melky Cabrera is Teixeira's spot in the batting order I guarantee he has at least 20 less RBI's than Teixeira has right now. I agree average is a very good category as is OBP and OPS...but if your statement is right about what RBI's mean then the same guys wouldn't be finishing the year with the most RBI's every year.

YourMathTeacher · « **Reply #38 on:** August 22, 2009, 10:51:54 PM »

I think salary should be the determining factor. The highest paid player must be best player, right?

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #39 on:** August 22, 2009, 10:54:13 PM »

Yes! That would properly place the pirates players all as the worst players in the league! haha

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #40 on:** August 22, 2009, 10:56:17 PM »

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 10:32:52 PM

Quote from: Rawrlolsauce! on August 22, 2009, 08:00:49 PM
RBI is the worst stat, I don't even look at it. It measures how good the players in front of you are doing

That is so false a statement I hardly even know what to say . Put Melky Cabrera is Teixeira's spot in the batting order I guarantee he has at least 20 less RBI's than Teixeira has right now. I agree average is a very good category as is OBP and OPS...but if your statement is right about what RBI's mean then the same guys wouldn't be finishing the year with the most RBI's every year.

OPS is an awful stat. OPS+ is an amazing stat. RBI's are just awful, obviously the player matters but the team matters too. If you'd put lets say Albert Pujols in Teixera's spot, Albert would probably have 140 RBI's so far.

The reason you see so many repeats is because generally the players that can drive in runs on a regular basis get scooped up by a team that can provide good lead off-two-three hitters for them.

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #41 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:07:15 PM »

Eh...I wouldn't really agree with that either. Jason Bay when he was on the Pirates still put up great numbers, Hanley Ramirez puts up great numbers, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun AND Prince Fielder. RBI's is a stat that measures how clutch you are, and those guys who finish atop the leaderboard in RBI's every year are there because they pull through when there are runners in scoring positions. All the players I named above are on teams who do no have great 1 and 2 batters. The fact that both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun have as many RBI's as they do when they bat in a row almost single handedly disproves your point. HR's is mostly a matter of strength but the players that constantly hit HR's and couple them with good AVG are quality. A player like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn...I agree their HR numbers mean next to nothing because they go up and swing for the hills every swing and if they connect its a HR. But a player like Teixeira, Braun, Fielder, Pujols, Morneau, Youkilis, and Chase Utley hit HR's and have good AVG thus their HR's are meaningful. So for HR's it depends but RBI's does measure how clutch you are.

YourMathTeacher · « **Reply #42 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:09:07 PM »

So if the guys in front of you never get on base, you will never be a clutch hitter. Shame.

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #43 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:10:53 PM »

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 11:07:15 PM

Eh...I wouldn't really agree with that either. Jason Bay when he was on the Pirates still put up great numbers, Hanley Ramirez puts up great numbers, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun AND Prince Fielder. RBI's is a stat that measures how clutch you are, and those guys who finish atop the leaderboard in RBI's every year are there because they pull through when there are runners in scoring positions. All the players I named above are on teams who do no have great 1 and 2 batters. The fact that both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun have as many RBI's as they do when they bat in a row almost single handedly disproves your point. HR's is mostly a matter of strength but the players that constantly hit HR's and couple them with good AVG are quality. A player like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn...I agree their HR numbers mean next to nothing because they go up and swing for the hills every swing and if they connect its a HR. But a player like Teixeira, Braun, Fielder, Pujols, Morneau, Youkilis, and Chase Utley hit HR's and have good AVG thus their HR's are meaningful. So for HR's it depends but RBI's does measure how clutch you are.

RBI's DO NOT measure clutch. A mediocre player that has 200 AB's with RISP will have more RBI's than an Albert Pujols who has 50 AB's with RISP, but Pujols would be much more clutch. USE BA, OPS+, AND SLG WITH RISP TO DETERMINE CLUTCH.

Like I said before, HR's often depend on the park. Justin Morneau could hit a ball off the bagging in the Metredome and it'd be a single, whereas Texiera could hit a pop fly and it hits a jet stream and flies out. USE SLUGGING, IT IS A MUCH BETTER MEASURE OF POWER

Quick Fact: Texiera's road SLG is 150 lower than his home slugging! This proves Yankee stadium is a wind tunnel.

EDIT: I'll post some abbreviations, calculations, and what stats mean in a second incase anyone is getting confused.

redemptioncousin · « **Reply #44 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:17:19 PM »

That is not true at all... Slugging % does not show power as much as it does ability to hit gaps and speed. Also... Slugging may be tainted by a bad batting average (that doesn't mean a batter doesn't have power)... or a specific ballpark. For example, Boston's green monster consistantely takes doubles from hitters and makes them singles.

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #45 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:18:19 PM »

Whatever...you use your statistics and I will use mine. I think you just want your statistics to all be the best ones to measure because those are the ones that make Mauer one of the greatest players of all time

If he played every year like this year then yes he would be up there. But since this is probably his best year he's ever had and his others are great only compared to the other catchers, I would never place him in the top greatest players of all time. And I disagree with your scenario about a mediocre player compared to pujols becuase that mediocre player probably with only bat .250 where pujols will bat .330+. Have you seen Pujols' numbers with the bases loaded? They are ridiculous. He is batting a little under .800 with the bases loaded this year. Give him 50 AB's with RISP compared to a mediocre player with RISP he will still have as many if not more RBI's. Look at Adrian Gonzales. He is one the worst batting team in the whole league and he has 73 RBI's. That would be higher on a better team but still he gets those runners home when they are in scoring position and that is clutch.

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #46 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:20:36 PM »

Quote from: redemptioncousin on August 22, 2009, 11:17:19 PM

That is not true at all... Slugging % does not show power as much as it does ability to hit gaps and speed. Also... Slugging may be tainted by a bad batting average (that doesn't mean a batter doesn't have power)... or a specific ballpark. For example, Boston's green monster consistantely takes doubles from hitters and makes them singles.

Speed does influence your SLG, but your not going to get more than a single in an infield or short outfield hit. I agree that it isn't an accurate reflection of power, but it is a million and a half times better than HR.

Alex_Olijar · « **Reply #47 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:21:45 PM »

30 or so of his RBIs are himself though. Gonzo hits home runs, so really only half of those RBIs are legit.

Rawrlolsauce! · « **Reply #48 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:25:24 PM »

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 11:18:19 PM

Whatever...you use your statistics and I will use mine.

I'm sorry, but most baseball analysts agree with me. The stats I've been using are a good reflection of a player's ability, whereas yours are far from it.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 11:18:19 PM

I think you just want your statistics to all be the best ones to measure because those are the ones that make Mauer one of the greatest players of all time

No, I'm using mine because they are a good representation. Mauer is having a great season, and the players you've been mentioning aren't coming close. Your trying to use statistics that don't prove anything to make their seasons close.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 11:18:19 PM

If he played every year like this year then yes he would be up there. But since this is probably his best year he's ever had and his others are great only compared to the other catchers, I would never place him in the top greatest players of all time.

Re-Read my argument from last night. I'm not saying Mauer is among the greats, I'm saying THIS SEASON is among the AVERAGE SEASON of the greats.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 11:18:19 PM

And I disagree with your scenario about a mediocre player compared to pujols becuase that mediocre player probably with only bat .250 where pujols will bat .330+. Have you seen Pujols' numbers with the bases loaded? They are ridiculous. He is batting a little under .800 with the bases loaded this year. Give him 50 AB's with RISP compared to a mediocre player with RISP he will still have as many if not more RBI's.

The .250 player would have 4 times as many at bats, 4 * .250 = 1.000 which means Pujols would have to bat 1.000 to TIE the mediocre player.

Quote from: ejberkenpas22 on August 22, 2009, 11:18:19 PM

Look at Adrian Gonzales. He is one the worst batting team in the whole league and he has 73 RBI's. That would be higher on a better team but still he gets those runners home when they are in scoring position and that is clutch.

Exactly. He has a low amount of RBI's yet he is a clutch hitter.

ejberkenpas22 · « **Reply #49 on:** August 22, 2009, 11:32:19 PM »

We will just have to settle on disagreeing

and 73 isn't low.

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Author Topic: All About Baseball! (Read 27378 times)

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