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In a long game, the bigger deck tends to be favored. However, speed decks are built with the goal of making the game as short as possible by winning really fast. As the number of powerful combos increased, the easier it became to take 3 or 4 of them and make them work together in a deck. Coupled with SoG/NJ/AotL and a ton of search and draw cards, it became much easier to rescue 5 LS in a short amount of time. Often the only thing that could stand in the way was a LS drought by the opponent, which became less of a factor with cards like Hopper, Malchus and the current popular one, The Amalekites Slave. The bottom line is that (although I do not have empirical data to support this), I believe that the majority of T1 2P games are won by the player who draws their SoG/NJ combo first. The smaller your deck, the better chance you have of doing that.
Case in point here, how many decks that do well don't run standalone defenses, or have a complete lack of defense?
I don't see that as playing Redemption. I see that as avoiding playing it.
In short, defense can work if you use it right.
In a 150-card deck, the odds of drawing Son of God dip below 1%
That being said, does anyone even try to build a deck anymore thinking of defense first?
Quote from: thestrongangel on September 24, 2009, 02:42:22 AMI don't see that as playing Redemption. I see that as avoiding playing it.I agree that there is some truth to this perspective. I have gone on record as being against the pre-block ignore (TGT especially) strategy for much the same reasons.
I agree that there is some truth to this perspective. I have gone on record as being against the pre-block ignore (TGT especially) strategy for much the same reasons.
One of the primary reasons people go for minimum deck size, is that Dominants are still among the most critical components of most decks, and only one copy is allowed in a deck whether it is 50 or 100 or 500 cards.So the odds of drawing one particular card from your deck (particularly a Dominant, since it can't ever be doubled) is reduced the larger your deck grows, while the odds of drawing a Lost Soul remains within a narrow range depending only on how many of the six other cards between souls you include in your deck, regardless of size.Example, in a 50-card deck, you have a 2% chance of any one card being Son of God but a 14% chance of grabbing a Lost Soul. In a 150-card deck, the odds of drawing Son of God dip below 1%, but the chance of grabbing a Lost Soul is still 14%.
TSA:That only reinforces the notion that speed decks are built to get to the best parts of the deck more quickly, and that the larger your deck is, the lower your odds are of getting to them in the same amount of time. Yes, 50 cards is fast; yes, 70 cards with speed is fast; but how much fastER, then, is 50 cards AND speed?Keep in mind that this is all statistics. If you draw SoG, NJ, AotL, a couple Heroes and a couple battle-winners in your first hand, it won't really matter if you have 50 or 500 cards in your deck, but the question is how much are you willing to risk on chance? How much do the additional cards benefit you over the lowered odds of getting the best cards combined with the additional Lost Souls that go in?There's no pat answer, it's just a question of degrees.
By that logic, then I should completely abandon defense entirely, at least how I read what your saying.
What statistics can't predict is real game situations.
we actually almost timed out and the only person still playing, if I remember right, was Slugfencer, who brought a 104 card t1 deck.
100-card defense-heavy decks will now be known as 'super turtles'. watch this new archetype catch fire.
Quote from: Master KChief on September 24, 2009, 11:53:56 PM100-card defense-heavy decks will now be known as 'super turtles'. watch this new archetype catch fire. I reserve the right to name my 100 carder "fat boy", barring an objection from the Kory of Lentine.